BY J.A. SCHWARTZ
The 2022 season saw the heavyweight Braves and Mets both win 100 games and battle for the NL East title until the final day of the season, only to watch as the upstart Phillies surpassed them both in the postseason to capture the NL pennant and a trip to the World Series. Serious injuries could create a power shift back to Atlanta, but all three can be expected to throw plenty of haymakers at each other.
This is the fourth of six division previews in the lead-up to opening day on Thursday March 30th
New York Mets
Pete Alonso tied Aaron Judge for the Major League lead with 131 RBI’s in 2022 while playing in 160 games. He’s hit 130 home runs in his first three full seasons in the big leagues.
Owner Steve Cohen has made it clear to the rest of the league that he has no regard whatsoever for luxury tax restrictions, or the penalties that might result from spending beyond the various thresholds. His Mets will carry a 2023 payroll that is projected to be calculated at $370 million, incurring a luxury tax of nearly $100 million more. Their tax obligations alone are higher than the total payrolls of 9 other franchises, and might have been even higher had the Mets completed their efforts to sign Carlos Correa, who failed his physical with New York. Even without Correa, the Mets were busy this winter, adding nine free agents at a total bill of $423 million, with 2022 AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander being the most notable. The rotation did lose Jacob deGrom to Texas, but they believe having Verlander and Max Scherzer as their 1-2 punch will provide more reliable innings, and Japanese import Kodai Senga makes their rotation that much deeper. The loss of elite closer Edwin Diaz to a freak injury in the WBC will put their bullpen to a test. The Mets made the playoffs for the first time since 2016, but were ousted by the Padres in the Wild Card round. Their 101 wins were the most by the team since 1986, and the second most in their history. The offense, which led the NL in batting average at .259, returns largely intact, led by Pete Alonso (40 HR, 131 RBIs) and Francisco Lindor (26 HR, 107 RBIs). Cohen will spare no expense to guide his Mets to a championship, and any other outcome for 2023 would be considered a failure.
Atlanta Braves
Fresh from leading Venezuela to an undefeated record in group play during the WBC, Braves fans are salivating about having Ronald Acuna Jr. for a full season in 2023. All the did the last time he played over 150 games was slug 41 home runs while stealing 37 bases.
After winning the 2021 World Series, the Braves won their fifth straight NL East title, but lost to the upstart Phillies in the 2022 NLDS, dampening the positive developments in last year’s campaign. Atlanta won 101 games, were second in the NL in ERA and runs scored, and featured both the NL Rookie of the Year (Michael Harris), and the runner up (Spencer Strider), system products who debuted with tremendous results. A year after adding Matt Olson (34 HRS, 103 RBIs) from Oakland, the Braves again raided the A’s to acquire stellar young catcher Sean Murphy, and signed him to a long term extension to keep him in Atlanta. The Braves have now locked up their core talent on long term deals that will see Strider, Murphy, Harris, Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley through at least 2027, providing a stable group of talent that should keep the franchise competitive during that period. Between 1991 and 2005, the Braves won the NL East in 14 of those 15 seasons, winning the World Series in 1995. This current Atlanta club is poised to go on a similar tear, and should be regarded as a dangerous foe in 2023.
Philadelphia Phillies
An injury plagued Bryce Harper only played 99 games last season but was a dominant force in the postseason, belting six home runs and 13 RBI’s to help lead the Phillies to their first pennant since 2010. He’s expected to miss the first two months of the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
The defending 2022 National League Champions will have their work cut out for them if they are to repeat as pennant winners in 2023, given the strength of the division in which they compete. However, President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski has made bold declarations of intent with his offseason moves. Philadelphia added Trea Turner to play shortstop on an 11-year, $300 million contract, making an already potent lineup that much more formidable. To augment the pitching staff, the Phillies stole Taijuan Walker from the Mets (4 years, $72 million) to join Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler in the rotation. The pen will benefit from the addition of Craig Kimbrel (1 year, $10 million) and lefty Gregory Soto, acquired via trade from Detroit. While Rhys Hoskins will miss the season after tearing the ACL in his left knee days ago and Bryce Harper is out until at least late May recovering from elbow surgery, the Phillies will count on bounce-back seasons from Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm to help hold the fort until midseason. The franchise hasn’t won a title since 2008, but their 2023 edition may represent the best chance to change that fact.
Miami Marlins
The first Cy Young winner in Marlins history, Sandy Alcantara dominated hitters last season, going 14-9 with a 2.28 ERA and a Major League leading six complete games.
The Miami Marlins suffered through their second consecutive losing season since earning a surprise playoff berth in the truncated 2020 campaign, losing 95 and 93 games in 2021 and 2022. Their 2022 season began ominously, as CEO Derek Jeter stepped down during spring training, citing differences of opinion on how the team was being run. The Marlins campaign still managed to provide some high points, most notably from Sandy Alcantara, who went 14-9, 2.28 and won the NL Cy Young Award. Despite scoring fewer runs than any other NL club, Miami had the NL stolen base champ in Jon Berti, whose 41 thefts paced the senior circuit. Their best hitter is 24-year old Jazz Chisholm Jr., whose 139 OPS+ was easily the best on the roster. Chisholm Jr., who played mostly second base last year, will move to center field to accommodate AL batting champ Luis Arraez, acquired from the Twins for starter Pablo Lopez. Their fans can anticipate the debut of 6’8” fireballer Eury Perez, 19, who was rated the top pitching prospect in the game by some publications, and who may join Alcantara in the rotation in the second half.
Washington Nationals
Acquired from the Dodgers in the Max Scherzer trade, prospects like Josiah Gray give Nats fans hope for the distant future after the team bottomed out just four years after winning it all. Gray struck out 154 batters in 148 innings in his first full season in 2022.
The 2022 Nationals were the worst team in baseball, losing 107 games. After winning the World Series in 2019, Washington has finished last in the division for three straight years, and are projected to do so again in 2023. From the team that lost 107 games, they subtracted franchise cornerstone Juan Soto, who turned down a 15-year, $440 million contract from Washington before being traded to the Padres with Josh Bell. They did receive considerable prospect capital in the transaction, and fans will get to see CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore on the field this season, as well as homegrown starter Cade Cavalli, each of whom will look to establish themselves as future major league stars. Surprise breakout hitter Joey Meneses hopes to reprise his remarkable .324/.367/.563 performance in 2022 after replacing Soto in the lineup, but the Nats will use 2023 as the springboard towards what they hope will be a brighter future.
