College football playoffs choose ratings over integrity

BY J.A.SCHWARTZ

College Football had been the last bastion of major competitive sports, in that every regular reason game truly mattered. In the NBA and NHL, at least 16 teams (at least half the league) qualify for the postseason. In baseball, the recently expanded playoffs allowed 12 teams entry to the quest for the World Series title. The NFL sees 14 of its 32 franchises entered into the single elimination tournament en route to a Super Bowl championship. The NCAA basketball tournament provides bids for as many as 66 teams to win the Big Dance, and NCAA baseball also seeds 64 teams into the bracket that leads to the College World Series in Omaha. Even NCAA Hockey watches 16 teams vie for entry into the Frozen Four at the end of each season.

Until 2023, the sanctity and importance of every single regular season NCAA football game was magnified. Any team with true national championship aspirations had best avoid the upsets that make the college football season a magical ride. A single costly loss may well preclude an otherwise excellent team a shot to be admitted into the College Football Playoff, where only the top four (of the 133 total teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision) teams in the entire country are allowed to vie for the title of best college team in the land. Every fall Saturday took on the air of a playoff atmosphere, and rivalry games among conference foes turned into de facto bowl games, delighting the students and alumni who built their weekends around those contests.

In 2023, the College Football Playoff (CFP) Selection Committee decided that 13-0 Florida State, who had won the ACC Conference Championship and had been ranked in the top four in the country by the coaches, AP and CFP rankings all season, was not worthy to compete for the National Championship. The Committee instead elevated Alabama into the #4 spot in the playoffs, despite the fact that the Crimson Tide had lost a game earlier in 2023 (to #3 overall CFP seed Texas). How could a team who had been beaten already this season be considered a stronger candidate to play for the National Championship than one who had gone undefeated in a major conference? That turns out to be a very complicated question, and the answer would seem to devalue the performance of the players on the field in the one sport left where that truly mattered.

The College Football Playoff’s (CFP) own website illuminates the reasoning behind their existence: “The playoff was created to preserve the excitement and significance of college football’s unique regular season where every game counts. The postseason structure creates an exciting four-team playoff that upholds the best regular season in sports and protects America’s rich bowl tradition.” The CFP committee is charged with ranking the “best” four teams when they attempt to determine the CFP bracket: “The selection committee ranks the teams based on the members’ evaluation of the teams’ performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and comparison of results against common opponents to decide among teams that are comparable.” The money quote, from the Principles Section of the CFP website, expounding on the process used to distinguish comparable teams: “…other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.”

Two plays seem to have determined how the CFP selection committee arrived at their decision to include #4 Alabama and exclude #5 Florida State, but the questions that should be raised about the ramifications of the choices made by the committee run far deeper than those precious, fateful seconds of combat.

On November 18th, Heisman Trophy candidate and Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis was tackled on a run up the middle, suffering a horrific left leg injury that required surgery and ended his season-and his career-at Florida State. The Seminoles would go on to win that game against Northern Alabama 58-13. Seminole backup quarterbacks Tate Rodemaker and Brock Glenn would guide Florida State to victories over Florida and Louisville to complete its undefeated season as ACC Conference Champions.

On November 25th, 10-1 Alabama trailed arch-rival Auburn 24-20 with 43 seconds to go in the fourth quarter. Alabama, who had been favored by 14 1/2 points, faced a 4th and goal from the Auburn 31 yard line. Win expectancy metrics gave Auburn a 99.9% chance to win the game. In a play that will echo through the ages in that intense rivalry, Alabama QB Jalen Milroe found WR Isaiah Bond in the corner of the end zone to give Alabama a miraculous victory. A week earlier, Auburn had been crushed by unranked New Mexico State, 31-10, making Alabama’s struggles in the contest that much more damning. The Crimson Tide won, but certainly did not play like one of the best teams in the country.

In the history of the CFP process, which began in 2014, an undefeated Power 5 conference champion has never been excluded from the College Football Playoff. By passing over Florida State for Alabama, the committee made history. On the field, the Seminoles proved that none of the teams they’ve played were better than they were. They notched victories against #5 LSU, Clemson, #16 Duke and #14 Louisville, all by at least seven points. Their offense was 14th in the country in points scored, and their defense was sixth in points allowed. Their offense turned the ball over the fewest times in the entire nation-a total of five in 13 games. They feature likely first round NFL draft picks Jared Verse and Keon Coleman, and have four players on their roster among the top 100 draft prospects for the 2024 draft. Alabama has the 19th best offense and the 17th best defense in the nation based on points allowed. Alabama has three likely first round selections including Kool-Aid McKinstry, Dallas Turner and JC Latham, and have 5 players on their roster with top 100 grades. The Crimson Tide played a tougher schedule than the Seminoles according to most assessments of that metric, though the ACC went 6-4 against the SEC in interconference play in 2023.

Did the committee really see such a huge difference between Alabama and Florida State that it would elevate the team that had one loss over the team who hadn’t been beaten all season? Did the entire college football season pivot based on two extremely unlikely plays? Apparently so.

The CFP committee is charged with putting the four teams into the playoff that they feel each have a chance to win the national title, based on their playing trends entering the bowl season. Despite the fact that Florida State won each game they played without their starting QB, they didn’t impress the group who would end up deciding their fate as they did so. Their backup quarterback, Tate Rodemaker, was a three-star recruit ranked in the top 20 at the position in the class of 2020. On the season, the junior appeared in seven contests, completing 32 of 56 passes, and tossing five touchdowns without an interception with a QB rating of 163.1. He piloted the Seminoles to victory in relief of Travis against North Alabama, then rallied the team to a win over rival Florida in the Swamp, a game during which he suffered a concussion that would keep him out of the ACC Championship against Louisville. Had Florida State been chosen to compete in the College Football Playoff, Rodemaker would have almost certainly been the starter under center instead of third string freshman Brock Glenn, who appeared overmatched against Louisville. The committee must have taken that into account in their assessment of the team, and concluded that Rodemaker was nowhere near as talented or effective as the injured Travis would have been.

Was that fair? Surely, no college football team in the history of the College Football Playoff (which started with the 2014 season) would end up making the CFP and actually winning the title with a quarterback that wasn’t its starter at the beginning of that season? Right?

Absolutely correct. It has never happened…except when Ohio State did it in 2014. And again when Alabama won in 2017, Clemson won in 2018 and Georgia won in 2021. So, four of the nine champions were crowned without their opening week starter at quarterback.

The committee clearly saw it differently.

Florida State is a different team than they were the first 11 weeks,” said Boo Corrigan, CFP Committee Chair, Axios reported. “If you look at who they are as a team right now, without Jordan Travis, without the offensive dynamic that he brings to it, they are a different team. And the committee voted Alabama four and Florida State five.”

A CFP committee member echoed that sentiment. “All of us had the emotional tie, like, ‘Holy S—, this is really going to suck to do this,'” one committee member told ESPN. “We talked about that over and over, and we just kept coming back [to] are they good enough with what they have to win a national championship, and it just kept coming back [to] we didn’t think they could.”

The players who actually put on helmets and compete in the trenches, however, have a right to feel differently.

College Football Analyst and former NFL player Booger McFarland was adamant in his position. “To me, this is a travesty to the sport,” McFarland said. “Because we go out there on the field and we play the game. And regardless of if it looks good at the quarterback position, regardless of if we win with offense, whether we win with defense, the name of the game is to win.

Florida State coach Mike Norvell weighed in: “I am disgusted and infuriated with the committee’s decision today to have what was earned on the field taken away because a small group of people decided they knew better than the results of the games. What is the point of playing games?” he said.

Norvell is biased, but he’s also absolutely correct. When a coach can rally a group of 18-22 year old kids to play winning football every single week of the season in one of the strongest conferences in the country, that coach should be able to look his players in the eye and promise them a chance to prove they are the best team in the sport-on the field. That opportunity was taken away from Norvell and the Seminoles, rendering the actual results of the games as secondary considerations to perceived strength and the potential to win a national title.

Perhaps the committee was influenced by the perception that the oddsmakers had of the teams in consideration for the CFP top four. Before the final four teams were even announced, it was speculated that Florida State would have been 14.5 point underdogs to #1 Michigan had they been the #4 seed. The Wolverines enter the contest against the Crimson Tide as 1.5 point favorites. The Seminoles, who are considered the #5 team in the rankings by the CFP, will play #6 Georgia in the Orange Bowl. The Bulldogs are favored by 17 points over Florida State. By the estimation of most odds making sites, Florida State would not have been favored to win any matchup (against Michigan, Washington, Texas or Alabama).

Those betting sites use the same metrics and figures to assess the relative strengths of the teams involved in the games as those available to the committee. If the goal of the committee was to award the teams most attractive to the numbers crunchers, they appeared to have gotten it right.

Washington, the #2 team in the CFP final seeding, went undefeated this season, winning the Pac 12 championship 34-31 over Oregon. Ironically, the Huskies were 10 point underdogs against the Ducks for that contest, which took place in Las Vegas, despite having beaten Oregon earlier in the season 36-33. The numbers and analytics suggested that Oregon entered the Pac 12 title game playing better football than Washington, and the oddsmakers made Oregon the favorite to win the game and avenge the earlier loss (the Ducks only defeat on the season to that point). On the field, however, Washington outplayed Oregon again, and vanquished their foes decisively, clearly earning the respect of the committee in the process.

Some of the most memorable games in college football history were won by teams who were huge underdogs to their opponents, but who still found a way to compete between the lines. Just last year, TCU was an eight point underdog to the blueblood Michigan team in the CFP Fiesta Bowl. The Horned Frogs upset Michigan in a riveting slugfest, 51-45 to advance to the championship game.

The landscape of college sports is made more interesting and riveting because of the Cinderella stories that rise up to achieve unprecedented and unexpected results on the road to crowning a champion. Perhaps a backup quarterback could have led his teammates to a national title (again), proving that it takes an entire team, not just one player, to achieve true greatness. Unfortunately, in 2023, college football fans will be denied the chance to find out.

Florida State would have been a huge long shot to win the national championship. They fought gamely all season despite the adversity suffered by their quarterback, beating every team on their schedule this season, fair and square. They have a very defensible claim to be allowed to compete for the national title, having followed the rules that govern the sport without question.

Can every team that did make the College Football Playoff (CFP) final four say that?

The concept of having “earned” the right to play in the CFP or the idea that a team “deserves” to be in the group of four teams eligible to vie for the title seems to have been applied differently for the schools involved. Nobody on the committee questioned the inclusion of Michigan, the #1 ranked team in the nation and the top seed in the CFP, despite significant allegations of improper scouting via in-person video surveillance that resulted in the suspension of Head Coach Jim Harbaugh for three games this year. Connor Stalions, a Michigan football staffer, apparently had a cadre of spies who would attend games for future Michigan opponents in order to film their sideline coaches in an attempt to decipher their play-calling signals.

The NCAA investigated Michigan over the issue, as did the Big Ten, who ultimately decided there was enough evidence of impropriety that they suspended Jim Harbaugh for three games, including their annual showdown against Ohio State. Also swept up in the malfeasance was Wolverines linebackers coach Chris Partridge, who was fired November 17th for allegedly trying to tamper with or destroy evidence associated with the sign-sealing scandal. Surely, these considerations would have merited discussion among the CFP committee members, who would have to at least question the validity of Michigan’s on-field success based on these allegations.

Apparently, the committee allowed Michigan’s performance on the field to speak for itself, and awarded their program the #1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff. CFP committee chair Boo Corrigan said, “As we went through, that really wasn’t any part of the discussions that occurred in our time together. It’s an NCAA issue, it’s not a CFP issue.” On October 31st, when the first iteration of the CFP rankings were revealed (which ranked Michigan #3 in that version of the standings), CFP executive director Bill Hancock noted “Michigan has played well all season. Fact of the matter is, no one knows what happened. We are dealing right now with allegations only. The committee makes its judgments based on what happened on the field…”. The committee’s position was very clear.

The Big Ten may have handed down its suspension of Harbaugh, but the NCAA investigation is ongoing. It is entirely possible that the findings of the NCAA investigation will not be known until well after the completion of the championship game in January of 2024. Did the CFP committee consider the possibility that the NCAA may find that the Michigan football program was guilty of the video cheating allegations that have been made public, and force the program to vacate victories from this past season? That may seem far-fetched, but the NCAA has stringent guidelines about what is considered “acceptable” when it comes to signal decoding, and the use of video equipment or similar technology is strictly forbidden. In addition to the 1994 NCAA Bylaw that prohibits off-campus, in-person scouting of future opponents, the 2023 NCAA Football rule book plainly states that “any attempt to record, either through audio or video means, any signals given by an opposing player, coach or other team personnel is prohibited.” The punishment for such violations is not spelled out explicitly, but the University of Michigan already suspended its football coach for three games earlier this season after an NCAA investigation discovered that Harbaugh committed recruiting violations during the pandemic, and for failing to aid in the investigation of that matter. Harbaugh and the football program would be subject to enhanced punishment if the NCAA determines that the sign-stealing occurred while Harbaugh and the program were already under scrutiny for another issue. Harbaugh has said that he had no knowledge of the signal stealing scheme, but the NCAA rules note that a head coach “is presumed to have knowledge of what is occurring in his program, and therefore, can be responsible for the actions of his staff and individuals associated with the program.”

While the ultimate outcome of these investigations might not be known for months, or even years, there is a credible and legitimate possibility that the Wolverines may have to vacate victories earned in this (or past) seasons, which would obviously impact the integrity of their participation in the College Football Playoff.
The CFP committee is apparently unconcerned with such an outcome, kicking the can down the road by distancing itself from the allegations as “an NCAA issue.” If Michigan goes on to win the national title, then has that title besmirched or stripped due to the cheating scandal, the selection committee will have a lot of explaining to do, not only to the fans of Florida State, but to college football fans worldwide. They should be held accountable for letting a team under significant program-wide scrutiny about their sportsmanship and honor remain eligible for the national championship while an undefeated conference champion gets excluded.

Regardless of the outcomes of the games over the next two weeks, college football has been diminished by the decision of the committee. The results on the field have to matter. The integrity of the coaches that shape the young men who toil valiantly under their direction have to be role models, representing the highest ideals of competition. They, and the programs who employ them, have to be held to a higher standard in these areas given the incredible opportunity and platform they have to influence and inspire those associated with their schools – and given the immense national and international interest in their exploits.

The coaches should be above reproach when it comes to issues of sportsmanship. The players have to believe that their performance on the field will matter more than how a committee will judge the relative value of their teammates, from those who are injured to those who will get the chance to step up and show their mettle when the opportunity arises. The committee’s decisions in this year’s CFP process indicate a true lack of understanding of the meaning and importance of competition and sportsmanship, and should lead to a significant overhaul of the guidelines that led to those outcomes.

Thankfully for everyone involved, the 2024 season will see twelve teams entered into the new CFP bracket, making it nearly impossible to have such questions surround the selection process again. Or so we can hope.