BY J.A. SCHWARTZ
The world of professional North American sports has seen a curious and unprecedented trend unfold over the past seven months. In early June, the Vegas Golden Knights won the first Stanley Cup in their brief six year franchise history. A week later, the Denver Nuggets were crowned NBA champions, providing that organization with its first ever title. In early November, the Texas Rangers defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks in the World Series, allowing that franchise to celebrate the ultimate achievement in baseball-and doing so for the first time in their 52 years in Texas (after failing to win one for 11 years as the Washington Senators). It would seem predestined that the NFL will follow suit, and anoint a first time champion in February. Fortunately, for those willing to interpret such serendipitous portents as signs of a once-in-a-lifetime alignment of cosmic tumblers, the NFL provides three star-crossed organizations (the Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions and Houston Texans) intent on fulfilling the prophecy and completing the cycle. Will one emerge from obscurity to answer destiny’s call? Read on…
The 17 game grind of the regular season in the NFL has winnowed the field of title hopefuls to 14, seven in each conference, who have qualified for the postseason. From that group, two will emerge to do battle in Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas in front of 65,000 fans in Super Bowl LVIII.
The 18 weeks of physical combat endured by each NFL team takes its toll. The game itself has been described as a war of attrition, and often the teams that stay healthiest through the year are the ones who play deep into January. Injuries, and the physical capacity of key players to perform at their peak levels, will play a large role in determining which teams end up hoisting the Lombardi trophy among a sea of confetti on February 11th, 2024.
This season has seen 60 different quarterbacks take snaps in the NFL. Only ten teams have seen their Week 1 starter survive to start each of his teams games this year: San Francisco (Brock Purdy), Tampa Bay (Baker Mayfield), Green Bay (Jordan Love), Detroit (Jared Goff), Dallas (Dak Prescott), Philadelphia (Jalen Hurts), Kansas City (Patrick Mahomes), Baltimore (Lamar Jackson), Miami (Tua Tagovailoa) and Buffalo (Josh Allen). It is no coincidence that each of those franchises have made the playoffs. Having your top talent available at the most critical position in the sport seems to translate predictably into on-field success.
American Football Conference
Baltimore Ravens (#1 seed)
The Baltimore Ravens spent much the offseason hoping that no other NFL team would meet the reported demands of their free agent quarterback, Lamar Jackson. After a protracted and sometimes acrimonious negotiation, the Ravens promised their star QB $260 million (of which $185 is guaranteed) over five years, making him the highest paid player in the history of the league (at the time of the deal-Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert have already signed larger deals). Considering that Jackson is the front-runner for the MVP of the league following a season where he led his team to a 13-4 record and the #1 overall playoff seed in the AFC with a combined 29 passing and rushing TDs and a QBR of 102.7, don’t believe Head Coach John Harbaugh and the Baltimore front office are displeased with the outcome. The Ravens also feature a defense that has allowed the fewest points, had the most sacks and forced the most turnovers of any team in football. Combining a dominating defense with Jackson’s skill has made the Ravens a nightmare for opponents in 2023, and the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
Buffalo Bills (#2 seed)
The Buffalo Bills won their last five games to take the AFC East and clinch the #2 overall seed for the playoffs. Entering December, they were 6-6, and a postseason berth seemed miles away given the strength of the conference, but head coach Sean McDermott had confidence in his players, and Josh Allen made big plays when it counted, helping Buffalo win the division for the fourth straight season. Allen had a polarizing campaign in 2023, turning the ball over 22 times (2nd worst in the NFL) with a career high 18 interceptions. He was also responsible for a league best 40 TDs (combined passing and rushing scores), and despite his willingness to scramble, he started at least 16 games for the fifth consecutive season. Buffalo was sixth in points scored, and allowed the fourth lowest points against their defense, leading to the fourth best point differential in the league in 2023. Stefon Diggs had 107 receptions and 8 TDs, and second year running back James Cook proved to be a versatile offensive weapon, rushing for 1122 yards and catching 44 passes for another 445 yards and 6 total TDs. Ed Oliver and Leonard Floyd combined for 20 sacks, and their opportunistic defense created 30 turnovers, 2nd best in the league. In his seven years as Bills coach, McDermott has guided Buffalo to the playoffs six times, but has never taken the team to the Super Bowl, going 4-5 in nine postseason games. With Josh Allen at the helm, jaw-dropping plays are part of the experience for Buffalo fans, and if he can limit the mistakes he makes, this team is capable of winning the franchise’s first ever championship.
Kansas City Chiefs (#3 seed)
It seems like a long time has passed since Andy Reid watched his superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes win Super Bowl LVII over Philadelphia 38-35 eleven months ago. Reid has built a coaching resume that places him among the best in the business. Over 25 years, he’s 257-144 (fourth all-time in victories), and is 127-51 in Kansas City. He’s won two Super Bowl championships, both with Mahomes at the helm, and is the only coach in NFL history to win 100 games with two different franchises. He’s also the only coach in NFL history to take his team to five straight Conference Championship Games, and has won NFL Coach of the Year three times. His Chiefs just won the AFC West for the eight years in a row, and he’s led Kansas City to at least 10 victories in nine consecutive seasons. Reid has arguably the best player in the game at his disposal, Mahomes, who has a 74-22 record as a starter for the Chiefs, and is the defending league MVP. However, this year’s version of the Chiefs has shown cracks in the offensive foundation. The 2022 Chiefs led the league in points and yards and were largely unstoppable when they needed to be. This year’s version is only 12th in points scored, primarily due to inconsistency among the receiving corps, a problem that has frustrated Mahomes all season. Travis Kelce had 93 catches but only 5 TDs this season (down from 12 last year), leaving rookie second round pick Rashee Rice (7 TDs) to help prop up a passing attack that has not lived up to the elite standard established by Mahomes thus far in his stellar career. Mahomes 92.6 QBR and 14 interceptions are both career worsts. The Kansas City defense was the primary reason they won the division again this year, allowing the third fewest points and second fewest yards in football in 2023. Their 54 sacks are second only to Baltimore, led by lineman George Karlaftis III and Chris Jones, who combined for 20. With Reid at the helm and Mahomes, Kelce and Jones on the field, opponents would be wise not to underestimate the capacity for a deep playoff run by the Chiefs. Dismiss them at your own peril.
Houston Texans (#4 seed)
The Houston Texans finished 2022 3-13-1, qualifying them for the second pick in the 2023 draft. They hired DeMeco Ryans as their head coach, his first such appointment after six years as the defensive coordinator in San Francisco. Ryans and GM Nick Caserio decided to draft quarterback CJ Stroud out of Ohio State with that second overall pick, and traded up to draft Will Anderson with the very next pick. Those two rookies have helped lead a team that had gone 11-38-1 over its previous three seasons to the AFC South title. Stroud went 9-6 in his 15 starts, threw 23 TDs and only 5 interceptions, leading to the sixth best passer rating in the league (100) and the fourth best Adusted Net Yards/Attempt (7.32), behind only Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson in all of football. His primary targets were Nico Collins (80 receptions, 8 TDs) and Dalton Schultz (59 receptions and 5 TDs), who were both physical and sure-handed. The Texans turned the ball over a league low 14 times, allowing Stroud to stay on the field and complete drives and limit mistakes. The Houston defense was middling by the metrics, but were eighth in the league in sacks (led by Jonathan Greenard with 12.5) and fifth in pressure rate, making it tough for opposing quarterbacks to sit in the pocket. Ryans could win NFL Coach Of the Year, and Stroud is likely to be the Offensive Rookie of the Year, but neither award will resonate much with the team unless they win playoff contests. As one of four teams never to have reached the Super Bowl, the entire Houston organization has its eyes on much bigger prizes.
Cleveland Browns (#5 seed)
The Cleveland Browns are the second of three AFC North teams to qualify for the playoffs, and probably the least likely to have done so. They are the first team since the 1984 Chicago Bears to make the postseason having started five different quarterbacks (DeShaun Watson, Dorian-Thompson Robinson, PJ Walker, Joe Flacco and Jeff Driskel). Three of their top six players by talent and/or cap hit have missed most of the season-Nick Chubb, DeShaun Watson and Jack Conklin. Their projected starting quarterback in the playoffs (Joe Flacco) and running back (Kareem Hunt) were both unemployed to start the season. Despite all that, head coach Kevin Stefanski led the team to an 11-6 record, and may be the favorite to take home his second NFL Coach of the Year award in four seasons. He owes much of his success to the jobs done by two of his assistants. Offensive line coach Bill Callahan has managed to keep the Browns offensive line performing at a high level, allowing them to score the ninth most points in the league despite losing both starting tackles and rookie sensation Dewand Jones for at least half the season. First year Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz took largely the same talent that finished 20th in the NFL in points allowed in 2022 and weaponized its strengths, leading to the unit finishing atop the league in total yards allowed, fewest yards per play allowed, and lowest QB passing rating against them. Likely Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett had 14 sacks, and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was third in the league in tackles for loss with 20. All of that probably wouldn’t have brought the Browns to the playoffs without the incredibly improbable story of Joe Flacco, 39, who wasn’t signed until November 20th, and started his first game as a Brown in Week 13. In his five starts, he was 4-1 with 13 TDs and 1616 yards, and gives Cleveland a playoff tested gunslinger in the pocket who has a Super Bowl ring and a Super Bowl MVP Award to motivate his teammates. Given that the Cleveland franchise is one of just four organizations (along with Detroit, Houston and Jacksonville) to have never reached the title game, those honors may well carry significant weight in the locker room. Cleveland is the only team to have beaten both #1 seeds- Baltimore and San Francisco-this season, and will not be intimidated by any playoff matchup.
Miami Dolphins (#6 seed)
Miami is the home to the league’s most lethal offensive attack in 2023, having scored the most points in the AFC (496) and gained the most yards (6822) in the entire league. Second year head Coach Mike McDaniel has guided the Dolphins to the playoffs in each of his first two seasons, and his tutelage has helped transmute Tua Tagovailoa into a star. Since McDaniel took over before the 2022 season, Tagovailoa has watched his rating improve nearly 15 points, and his average net yards per attempt has improved by nearly two yards. In his first two seasons with Miami, Tagovailoa threw 27 touchdowns in 23 games played-he’s tossed 54 in the 20 under McDaniel. It would be disingenuous to suggest that coaching is purely responsible for the offensive ascension in Miami, considering that McDaniel’s first year as head coach coincided with Tyreek Hill’s first year as a Dolphin. Hill has caught 231 passes for nearly 3500 yards and 19 touchdowns in Miami, leading the league with 1799 receiving yards in 2023. His 14.7 yards per touch is also tops in the league, and this will be the third time the explosive receiver achieves that distinction in his eight year career. Miami also features a devastating rushing tandem with Raheem Mostert and rookie third round selection De’Von Achane combining for nearly 2000 rushing yards and 25 TDs, banging out a league best 5.0 yards per carry. The defense is between 7th and 12th in most defensive metrics, but their pass rush pressures opposing quarterbacks at a league best 27.1%, ringing up 53 total sacks, good for third in the league. Unfortunately, the team leader in sacks, Bradley Chubb (11 sacks) tore his ACL in Week17, and will be unavailable for the playoff run, making the road to Las Vegas that much more challenging for Miami.
Pittsburgh Steelers (#7 seed)
Head Coach Mike Tomlin has come to define the modern Pittsburgh Steelers franchise, establishing a culture of winning, professionalism, and attitude that aligns seamlessly with the accomplishments of the organization. The franchise boasts six Super Bowl titles (tops in the NFL with New England), with their last win coming after the 2008 season. In his 17 year career, Tomlin has never had a losing record, and is 173-100 during that span. He’s led his teams to the playoffs in 11 of those 17 seasons, going 8-9 with that single Super Bowl win. This season may have featured his greatest coaching accomplishment, taking a team without a proven quarterback to a playoff berth while battling in the best division in football-the AFC North, that saw three of its four teams make the postseason. The Steelers offense ranked 28th in the NFL in points scored, easily the worst of the 14 teams left standing. Only two teams threw fewer TD passes than the Steelers, who suffered through the early season struggles of second year QB Kenny Pickett and a brief cameo by Mitchell Trubisky, a tandem that barely completed 62% of attempts. Mason Rudolph rescued the passing attack, going 3-0 with a 118 passer rating without an interception to guide the team to the Wild Card berth. Pittsburgh’s offense did manage to protect the ball, turning it over 16 times total in 2023, second only to the Texans. Their defense was sixth in the NFL in points allowed, led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate TJ Watt, who led the league with 19 sacks. Watt injured his knee in the season ending victory over Baltimore that helped qualify Pittsburgh for the postseason, and is out for their Wild Card matchup against Buffalo. Even with a hot Mason Rudolph leading the offense, if Watt is not on the field in Buffalo, the Steelers will need all of Tomlin’s coaching mojo to have a chance to advance.
Prediction: AFC Champion: Cleveland Browns
