Giants smacked by Phillies 13-6 but still the story of Baseball

BY J.A. SCHWARTZ

There have been several noteworthy story lines that have competed for the attention of baseball fans through the first 70 games of the 2021 Major League Baseball season.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the American League in all three Triple Crown categories, hitting .337 with 23 home runs and 59 RBIs in a breakout season for the former top prospect and son of Hall of Fame outfielder Vladimir Guerrero. The last Triple Crown winner was Miguel Cabrera, who achieved the feat in 2012 with the Tigers, but that effort was the first since 1967.

Jacob deGrom is threatening to rewrite the pitching record books, and is currently featuring a 6-2 record through 11 starts, with an absurdly low 0.54 ERA. He has allowed 26 hits in 67 innings pitched, and has walked only eight while fanning 111. The major league ERA record for a full season was achieved in 1968 by Hall of Famer Bob Gibson, who posted a 1.12 ERA for the Cardinals. deGrom’s ERA through 40% of the season is less than half that figure.

Fernando Tatis Jr. joins Guerrero Jr. in the category of baseball scions having their coming out parties. Tatis Jr., just 22, leads the National League in HR with 22 and RBIs with 50, despite missing 17 games with a shoulder injury and COVID-19. He’s also stolen 13 bases.

Major League Baseball is battling on field issues on a number of fronts, and is struggling to restore some sense of balance in a season that has seen record low performances by hitters. To date, big league batters are hitting .238, the poorest level since 1968, dubbed “The Year of the Pitcher”, when the league hit .237. After that season, baseball leadership decided to lower the height of the mound from 15 to 10 inches to mitigate the advantage that pitchers received by delivering the ball from such an elevated platform.

In 2021, baseball leadership has decided that the best way to restore offensive balance to the game is to crack down on the use of grip enhancing substances, which hurlers employ to increase velocity and spin on their pitches. Beginning Monday, June 21st, umpires will check pitchers between innings for evidence of such contraband, and can immediately eject anyone found to be utilizing amalgams other than rosin. The hue and cry from major league pitchers who are being forced to adjust foundational elements of their deliveries midseason has been thunderous, and figures to be a lightning rod of controversy as summer unwinds in stadiums around the country.

None of these developments is quite as shocking, or unexpected, as the current standings in the National League West.

In spite of a 13-6 shellacking at the hands of the Phillies Saturday afternoon, the Giants still find themselves with the best record in the majors (45-26) and a two game lead over the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. San Francisco has accomplished this with a payroll of $154 million (12th most in baseball), nearly $100 million less than the Dodgers are spending on the current roster.

The Giants feature the oldest roster in all of MLB, with an average age of 31.1, and prior to the season, most pundits (including this one) did not see this collection of talent being any threat at all to the goliaths who played in San Diego or Los Angeles when it came to the division race. According to Fangraphs playoff odds, the Giants began the season with a 5.7% chance of making the postseason. Their current odds sit at 69.4%, the single largest increase in baseball.

How on earth is manager Gabe Kapler getting such incredible production out of a roster that wasn’t expected to make an October run ?

There are several possible explanations for the Giants lofty perch through 40% of the season. Offensively, they are getting career best punch from a collection of players thought to be past their primes: Buster Posey (34), Brandon Belt (33), Brandon Crawford (34) and Evan Longoria (35). Posey, Crawford and Longoria are all hitting at their highest levels ever, while Belt is putting up his second best season, after only the truncated 2020 campaign. Fueled by their grizzled veteran leaders, the Giants have changed their approach at the plate significantly since the last full season of statistics in 2019.

Hitting coach Donnie Ecker, brought aboard before the 2020 season, has emphasized plate discipline and hitting the ball in the air as the best avenue towards maximizing the talents of his batters. Despite the historically low levels of offense displayed thus far in 2021, Giants hitters have improved their walk rate, isolated slugging, fly ball rate and HR/fly ball levels dramatically compared to the 2019 squad. Considering that the primary leaders of this movement are players who were on the roster during that 2019 season, it stands to reason that it isn’t an influx of new talent, but a new plan at the plate that is fueling the Giants offense this year.

San Francisco leads the NL in home runs, is second in walk rate, and third in slugging and runs scored. Without meaning to impugn their dignity in any way, it would appear that Donnie Ecker has taught his old dogs new tricks.

Offense alone has not fueled the Giants run to the top of baseball. Their +81 run differential is second only to the Dodgers in the NL, and is supported by a pitching staff light on star power. Kevin Gausman, 30, accepted the qualifying offer extended to him by the Giants this offseason to return on a one-year deal for $18.9 million, and has established himself as the staff ace. His 8-1 record and 1.51 ERA both lead the club, as do his 103 strikeouts. Veterans Jonny Cueto, Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood round out the rotation, each of who are at least 30 years old and none of whom walk more than 2.7/9 innings pitched.

While the rest of baseball sees strikeout rates that are skyrocketing, the Giants 8.58 k/9 is 11th in the NL. They’ve managed to prevent runs without punch-outs, largely because they lead the league in lowest walk rate allowed and get more ground balls than any other National League pitching staff. It helps that their defense is turning balls in play into outs at a .723 clip, which is also a league high rate. The combination of few free passes, lots of worm burners and a defense that turns those balls in play into outs has resulted in a staff that has allowed the second fewest runs in the league, with a 3.08 ERA that trails only the Mets and the mystical deGrom.

Their bullpen is also atypical, and is not comprised by flame throwing monsters featuring triple digit heat. Giants relievers have the lowest strikeout rate in the league, but their 24 saves lead the NL, and their walk rate is the second best in the circuit. Jake McGee (34) and Tyler Rogers (30) are the lefty-righty closer tandem who finish most victories, and the 2.98 ERA of the entire bullpen group sits third in the NL.

The Giants have achieved their remarkable position through 40% of the season without significant contributions from their best prospects. Catcher Joey Bart, ranked by Baseball America as their #2 prospect, is crushing the ball at AAA this season, hitting .352/.392/.615, and is likely to be a contributor at the major league level down the stretch. Outfielder Heliot Ramos, their #3 prospect, is hitting .272/.365/.456 at AA this year, and may be a September call up, or perhaps trade bait should President of Baseball Operations Farhan Zaidi or GM Scott Harris decide to augment this year’s roster with trade deadline upgrades.

Players like Guerrero Jr., Tatis Jr. and deGrom came into the 2021 season with great expectations, and each has delivered productivity reflective of their prodigious talents.

The San Francisco Giants took the field on Opening Day, 2021 to little fanfare or acclaim. Within their own organization, however, their coaches, executives and veteran leaders all carried the same singular vision of postseason glory and championships, bounties with which the franchise is well acquainted. Perhaps the 2021 season will end with yet another unexpected World Series celebration in San Francisco.