October Baseball: Let the games in the junior circuit begin

BY J.A. SCHWARTZ

The MLB playoffs are now set to begin. The postseason format will revert to the pre-pandemic standard, and ten teams (as opposed to 16 in 2020) are in the mix, hoping for October glory.

The final few playoff spots weren’t determined until the season’s final day, when the Giants won a franchise record 107th game to clinch the NL West over the Dodgers, who won their 106th earlier on Sunday. The Yankees and Red Sox both required ninth inning heroics to clinch their postseason berths, which sets up a juicy single game contest between the hated rivals, a rematch of their 1978 classic at Fenway Park.

Let the drama ensue!

American League East Champion:
Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays qualified for the playoffs again in 2021, hoping to defend their American League Championship from 2020, when they were bested in the World Series by the Dodgers in six games. Despite having one of the lowest payrolls in baseball (and the lowest payroll of any playoff qualifier), the Rays managed to win 100 games with a strategy that relies heavily upon a deep, versatile bullpen.

It’s difficult to even identify their top starting pitchers that might line up for a playoff series, as their ace, Tyler Glasnow, has been out since late June with an elbow injury. Lefty Shane McClanahan, who made his major league debut in the playoffs last year, might get the ball in a Game 1 assignment, but the staff is led by a deep bullpen, anchored by righties Andrew Kittredge, Collin McHugh and Peter Fairbanks.

The Rays offense features good hitters in every lineup spot, but no true superstars. Brandon Lowe is their most productive bat, and his 39 HR’s and 99 RBI lead the team. October revelation Randy Arozarena, who set a postseason record in 2020 by hitting 10 home runs, is still technically a rookie, and may well win this year’s Rookie of the Year Award. If he doesn’t, it may be his wunderkind teammate, 20-year-old Wander Franco, who takes that honor. Franco, who is just 20 years old, debuted earlier this summer after being the consensus top prospect in all of baseball. He hasn’t disappointed, and had reached base in 43 consecutive games thru the last week of the season as the Rays wrapped up the AL East. Tampa also features 41-year-old slugger Nelson Cruz, acquired from the Twins at the trade deadline to further bolster their lineup. The Rays posted the best record in the AL in 2020, and it would be foolish to underestimate their ability to return to the World Series in 2021.

American League Central Champion:
Chicago White Sox

By winning the AL Central in 2021, the White Sox accomplished something they’ve never done in their 121-year history: qualify for the playoffs in consecutive seasons. The White Sox may have the best pitching staff of any team in the American League. They lead the league in ERA and strikeouts, and have three Cy Young caliber pitchers fronting their rotation in LHP Carlos Rodon, and RHP’s Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito. They also have a formidable bullpen, a weapon that venerable manager Tony La Russa deploys effectively to support the efforts of his workhorse starters, each of whom started at least 23 games in 2021.

Led by free agent addition Liam Hendriks, who led the team with 38 saves, La Russa can also turn to Craig Kimbrel, who was acquired from the cross-town Cubs at the trade deadline, to hold late inning leads. Lefty Aaron Bummer and righties Michael Kopech and Ryan Tepera each strike out more than 12 batters per nine innings, and make sure Chicago leads are protected.

The South Siders can also put up crooked numbers, and despite losing star hitters Eloy Jimenez, Yasmani Grandal and Luis Robert for large portions of the season, they are fully healthy heading into the postseason. Led by 2020 AL MVP Jose Abreu, the White Sox have a contingent of Cuban hitters who form the heart of the order, including Robert, Grandal and Yoan Moncada. Abreu was second in the AL in RBI’s, while Robert, Grandal and Moncada all get on base at a .375 clip or better. Tim Anderson, who won the 2020 AL batting title, sets the tone from the leadoff spot, contributing 17 HR’s and 18 SB’s while playing a steady shortstop.

American League West Champion:
Houston Astros

The Astros had the most potent offense in the American League, leading the league in runs scored and batting average. Led by familiar names with extensive postseason experience, Houston will provide opposing hurlers with a formidable challenge.

Including this season, Carlos Correa (6), Jose Altuve (6), Alex Bregman (5) and Yuli Gurriel (5) have been through at least five postseasons together, and the franchise has qualified for the playoffs in six of the past seven seasons, winning the organization’s only title in 2017. That title is considered tainted by many in the game, due to the franchise’s participation in a sign stealing scheme that cost their manager and GM their jobs, and resulted in punitive sanctions involving the loss of draft picks.

Despite those punishments, the team on the field keeps winning, and those core four players have been augmented by 2019 free agent Michael Brantley and homegrown sluggers Yordan Álvarez and Kyle Tucker, giving the Astros seven regulars who get on base at a .345 clip or better. Despite seeing Gerrit Cole defect to the Yankees via free agency after 2019, and losing Justin Verlander for the entire season with an elbow injury, manager Dusty Baker can still depend upon postseason veterans Zack Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr. to hold opponents off the scoreboard. Rookie Luis Garcia and young lefty Framber Valdez both feature ERAs 3.30 or lower, and figure to make meaningful starts for Baker in October. Closer Ryan Pressly, who had 26 saves and a 2.25 ERA, is a reliable force at the back of the pen, is supported by trade acquisition Kendall Graveman, who was imported from AL West rival Seattle at the deadline.

American League Wild Card #1:
Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox bounced back after a horrific 2020 season, and return to the postseason for the first time since 2018, when they won the World Series. Manager Alex Cora, who was suspended last season for his role in the Astros sign stealing scandal, has guided his roster through the beastly American League East to qualify for the Wild Card Game. Four AL East teams won at least 90 games in 2021, and were in contention for a playoff spot until the season’s final day of play.

The Red Sox reward for surviving that gauntlet of competition is a date with their hated rivals, the New York Yankees. In the patois of the New England baseball loyalist, it will be “wicked hahd” to advance in the playoffs, given that even if they emerge triumphant from their one game showdown with New York, a date with the Rays will await them. The last time Boston hosted New York in a one game showdown, it was 1978, when light hitting shortstop Bucky Dent’s three run homer over the Green Monster beat the Sox, and earned Dent a middle name that’s unprintable in a respectable publication.

Boston was fourth in the AL in runs, but their lineup still features hitters with significant postseason experience. Every Red Sox starting position player has been to the World Series, and six have rings to show for their efforts. The heart of their order is fearsome, with homegrown products Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and Bobby Dalbec complimenting imported sluggers JD Martinez, Kyle Schwarber and Hunter Renfroe. That group combined to hit 140 HR’s and drive in 460, and Boston’s ability to advance deep into the postseason will likely depend upon that core.

Their starting pitching revolves around ace Chris Sale, who returned in August after missing two full years following elbow surgery. Sale has been effective, but hasn’t pitched deep into games. The Red Sox will pin their hopes on Nathan Eovaldi, who gets the ball in the AL Wild Card Game, and who has proven himself capable in the heat of October battle. The Red Sox don’t have another starter with an ERA south of 3.80, and will have to lean upon a bullpen that might be missing its most important piece. Garrett Whitlock, a Rule 5 draftee from the Yankees, missed the last two weeks of the season with a pectoral strain, and his 8-4 record and 1.99 ERA were easily the top marks in an otherwise ordinary cast of relievers. Matt Barnes led the team with 24 saves, but he missed time in September after testing positive for COVID-19, and his effectiveness had waned in the second half even prior to contracting the virus. If the Red Sox hope to return to the World Series, they’ll have to have Whitlock and Barnes getting key outs late in games.

American League Wild Card #2:
New York Yankees

The Yankees haven’t advanced to the World Series since winning the title in 2009 despite making the playoffs for five straight years, and six of the past seven. Manager Aaron Boone hit the home run that sent the Bombers to the World Series in 2003, but he’ll be directing his charges from the dugout, hoping that gargantuan sluggers Aaron Judge, Joey Gallo and Giancarlo Stanton will have the chance to do the same for the 2021 Yankees. Those three outfielders combined to hit 112 HR’s this season, but their offense produced just over 700 runs this year, ninth in the AL.

New York will need a few other hitters having subpar seasons (DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres) to step up and contribute to have a chance to advance deep into the playoffs. Midseason trade acquisition Anthony Rizzo has been underwhelming for the Yankees, but he could certainly endear himself to the Yankee faithful with a series of clutch postseason moments.

The Yankees will deploy Gerrit Cole in the Wild Card game, inarguably their top starting pitcher this year. Cole went gone 16-8 with a 3.23 ERA with 243 strikeouts, second in the AL to Toronto’s Robbie Ray in 2021. Should they defeat the Red Sox in that elimination game, they’ll have to hope that another starter can step forward to support a deep playoff run. Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon, Jordan Montgomery and crafty lefty Nestor Cortes Jr. have all had their moments this season, but Cortes Jr. was their most reliable starter in their second half push to qualify for the postseason. The bullpen is anchored by lefty Aroldis Chapman, who saved 30 games for the Yankees and continues to strike out batters at an elite level (15.4/9-best in the AL) with his fearsome triple digit heat. His control, however, has been abysmal, walking 6.13/9, 187th among AL pitchers who have thrown 40 innings in 2021. Putting runners on base late in close games is a good way to lose leads, and Boone will have to hope that righties Chad Green, Jonathan Loaisiga and Clay Holmes can post zeroes when Chapman isn’t throwing strikes.

Predictions:

AL Wildcard:
Red Sox over Yankees

ALDS:
Rays over Red Sox
White Sox over Astros

ALCS:
White Sox over Rays