BY J.A. SCHWARTZ
The National League East produced the World Series champion last year for the second time in three seasons, and since the Red Sox won the 2018 title, NL teams have claimed the last three championships. Atlanta recovered from a slow start to vanquish Houston in the Fall Classic, but the Phillies and Mets have made several significant offseason upgrades to attempt to prevent the Braves from defending their crown. The Marlins and Nationals are in various stages of rebuilding, but the best hitter in the game resides in Washington, and Juan Soto alone is worth the price of admission.
Atlanta Braves
Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley (pictured foreground L-R) help form the nucleus of an Atlanta Braves squad along with the returning Ronald Acuna Jr. trying to become the first National League team to repeat as World Series champions since Cincinnati’s Big Red Machine in 1976.
Few pundits foresaw the Braves magical run to the 2021 World Series title before the season. When they lost their best player, Ronald Acuna Jr., to a torn ACL on July 10th, their record was 44-44, 4.5 games behind the Mets for the division lead. From that point forward, they went 44-29, scorched their way through the playoffs and knocked out the Astros in six games to win the fifth title in franchise history, but only the second since moving to Atlanta from Milwaukee in 1966.
One of their top pitchers, Mike Soroka, tore his Achilles tendon twice, once in 2020 and once in 2021, and didn’t pitch at all for Atlanta during their title season. Outfielder Marcell Ozuna fractured two fingers on his left hand in late May, and was arrested days later in a domestic violence situation, not playing for the team again the remainder of the season. So, how did this team win the World Series without Acuna Jr., Ozuna and Soroka?
As is the case in most championship stories, there were many heroes. The infield quartet of Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson and Austin Riley all stepped up, combining for 121 HR’s and 384 RBI’s to pace the offense. GM Alex Anthopoulos swung several key deals, essentially trading for his entire postseason outfield. In four separate transactions, he added Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall, Eddie Rosario and Jorge Soler without trading a prospect from their top 10 list. That group combined to slug .506 with 44 HRs and 116 RBIs. The imported batsmen shined even brighter in October: Rosario was the NLCS MVP, and Soler was the World Series MVP. Manager Brian Snitker also got stellar work from his top three starters, Charlie Morton, Max Fried and Ian Anderson, who combined to win 37 games over 480 innings.
Alas, the team that defends the 2021 World Series title will be without several critical components. Franchise icon Freeman was lured to Los Angeles to join the Dodgers. Anthopoulos deftly pivoted to acquire Matt Olson, 28, from Oakland and was swiftly signed him to an eight-year, $168 million extension to replace Freeman in the lineup. Soler signed in Miami, and Pedersen in San Francisco. Kenley Jansen was poached from Los Angeles on a one-year, $16 million dollar deal to close for the Braves, complimenting the lefty leaning bullpen corps that was so strong last October. Even in the face of those changes, the Braves should not be underestimated. They should have Acuna Jr., Ozuna and Soroka all back by mid-May, and Atlanta should be in the thick of the pennant chase again in 2022.
New York Mets
Two-time defending Home Run Derby champion Pete Alonso will continue to anchor the Mets rebuilt batting order in 2022. He leads the majors with 90 homers in his last two full seasons, having struck a MLB rookie record of 53 in 2019 when the also drove in 120 runs.
Steve Cohen, a lifelong Mets fan who purchased the team in January of 2021 for $2.4 billion, probably did not enjoy his first year as owner. His team underachieved all summer, and despite a $200 payroll that was third in the majors, finished 77-85, missing the playoffs for the fifth straight season. New GM Billy Eppler was hired in November to end that drought and bring the franchise its first World Series title since 1986. Eppler moved decisively, and the 2022 Mets will have several new stars on which to depend. The team allowed starting pitchers Marcus Stroman, Rich Hill and the perpetually injured Noah Syndergaard leave as free agents. To replace their innings, Eppler signed arguably the best free agent pitcher available, 37-year-old Max Scherzer. Scherzer, who received a three-year, $130 million deal, will toil alongside incumbent ace Jacob deGrom, giving the Mets a one-two punch atop their rotation that is unmatched in baseball if deGrom can stay healthy. They’re also the two highest paid starters in the game, with Scherzer pulling down $43 million and deGrom $36 million to toe the slab every fifth day for the Mets.
The lineup will also look different without Michael Conforto and Javier Baez, neither of who were re-signed. In their place, the Mets imported free agent centerfielder Starling Marte on a four-year $78 million contract, third baseman Eduardo Escobar (two-year, $20 million) and outfielder Mark Canha (two-year, $26.5 million) in a spending spree that helped push the club’s payroll for 2022 to $252 million, just shy of the Dodgers game leading $275 million. The team will also welcome back 39-year-old Robinson Cano, who missed all of 2021 after being suspended for PED usage. New manager Buck Showalter will be entrusted to guide this expensive but aging roster to the playoffs, and he’ll have to rely as much upon the incumbent stars as the newly purchased. The Mets offense floundered last year, finishing 13th in the NL in runs, and most of the blame was placed on infielders Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor, both of whom had arguably their worst seasons as professionals. Given that each players is not yet 30, Showalter has reason to expect bounce-back performances from both in 2022, which should make it easier for top run producer and 2019 Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso to drive in runs. The Braves won the NL East with 88 wins last season, and Cohen, Eppler and Showalter all expect their current collection of talent to exceed that mark in 2022.
Philadelphia Phillies
A seasoned veteran at 29 with ten full seasons under his belt, the Phillies Bryce Harper won his second NL MVP Award in 2021, batting .309 while leading the majors in slugging percentage and OPS and tying for the MLB lead with 42 doubles.
Philadelphia hasn’t witnessed playoff baseball at Citizens Bank Park in over a decade. Team President Dave Dombrowski and GM Sam Fuld featured a $200 million payroll last year, only to see their squad fall short of the postseason under manager Joe Girardi. The front office apparently felt strongly that the antiquated notion of pitchers hitting in the NL had constrained their lineup strategies (for the past century or so), so they splurged on bat-first sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos, signing the pair for a total of $180 million. Those acquisitions will push the payroll into the $221 million range, fourth in the majors, but if they help improve an offense that was seventh in the league in runs and OPS last year, and lead the team to the playoffs, few Phillies fans will care about the cost. Girardi figures to rotate Schwarber and Castellanos through the new DH slot, but both should be in the lineup most nights, adding thump to an order that already includes J.T. Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins and 2021 NL MVP Bryce Harper. That trio hit 79 HR’s in 2021, and with both Schwarber and Castellanos projected to hit at least 30 long balls each, the Phillies should have no problem scoring runs.
The question, as it has been for several years, revolves around the pitching. The team finished ninth in the league in ERA, despite having Zach Wheeler finish 14-10 with a 2.78 ERA, narrowly missing the NL Cy Young Award last year. Aaron Nola had an uncharacteristically poor season, finishing 9-9 with a 4.63 ERA, his worst in the past five seasons. Those two will have to carry the staff if the Phillies are to contend, as the bullpen continues to be an area of weakness. The collective relief corps finished 25th in baseball in ERA, and Dombrowski imported late inning upgrades in Corey Knebel, Jeurys Familia and Brad Hand, each of whom has at least some closing experience. Knebel will likely get the first shot at closing duties, and the fate of Philadelphia fans may well reside on the performance of the new look bullpen.
Miami Marlins
Fresh off helping the Atlanta Braves win their first championship since the 1995 season, World Series MVP Jorge Soler takes his powerful bat south to Miami into the heart of the Marlins lineup.
The offseason is usually quiet for the Marlins, who rarely make forays into the free agent market. The biggest news out of Miami this winter was the abrupt departure of CEO Derek Jeter. Jeter explained that, “the vision for the future of the franchise is different than the one I signed up to lead.” There has been speculation that Jeter was disappointed that improvements he sought to make to the roster were being vetoed by the ownership group. Prior to the lockout, the Marlins signed Avasail Garcia to help an offense that finished 14th in the NL in runs scored last year, but Jeter was rumored to have wanted more. The payroll was $58 million in 2021, 27th in the majors, leaving little room for significant signings. The Marlins 2021 attack was the only one with an OB% below .300, a clear impediment to consistent winning. Since the lockout ended, the team also added World Series MVP Jorge Soler on a three-year, $36 million contract to add punch to the lineup, which should also benefit from a full season from 23-year-old outfielder Jesus Sanchez, who hit 14 HR’s in 64 games after being recalled from the minors. The Marlins will depend upon Sanchez and wunderkind infielder Jazz Chisholm, also 23, to form the core of their attack for years to come. Chisholm hit 18 HR’s with 23 stolen bases in 2021, providing a dynamic force for Marlins fans to enjoy.
Miami’s biggest assets may be their young pitchers. The staff finished sixth in the league in ERA last year, led by starters Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez and lefty Trevor Rogers. Each is 26 or younger in 2022, and none featured an ERA north of 3.19 last season. Failed Oakland A’s prospect Jesus Luzardo came to camp throwing 99 MPH gas this spring, and there’s hope that the Marlins pitching coaches can finally tap into his significant potential on the mound. Manager Don Mattingly will have to hope his pitching can hold down opponents if the Marlins are to contend in 2022.
Washington Nationals
Universally acclaimed as one of the biggest offensive threats in baseball at the age of 23, Washington’s Juan Soto has already won a World Series title and a batting championship and is key to the Nationals rebuilding efforts.
It seems like an eternity ago, but the Nats won the first championship for the new iteration of the franchise in 2019. Some of the best players from that team, Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, and Anthony Rendon have all moved on to other teams, and Ryan Zimmerman and Howie Kendrick have retired. Franchise icon Stephen Strasburg has pitched a total of 26 ineffective innings since that title run due to injuries, and only superstar Juan Soto has given Nats fans reason to cheer during two consecutive last place finishes following their World Series victory. 2022 doesn’t figure to be much different. GM Mike Rizzo has given manager Davey Martinez some veteran free agent improvements in second baseman Cesar Hernandez and DH Nelson Cruz, but the offense revolves around the transcendent Soto, whose 2021 line of .313/.465/.534 with 29 HRs was MVP worthy. His .465 OB% led baseball by 30 points over MVP winner Bryce Harper, and at 23, Soto hasn’t even reached his prime. He’ll hope that righty Josiah Gray and catcher Keibert Ruiz, who both came over from the Dodgers in the trade that sent Scherzer and Turner to Los Angeles, mature quickly, helping to provide the core upon which the next competitive Washington team depends. In the meantime, Nationals fans should enjoy Soto’s exploits at the plate, as he may well be their main reason to celebrate in 2022.
