BY J.A. SCHWARTZ
The Minnesota Twins made the playoffs in three of the past five seasons, and won the American League Central in both 2019 and 2020 before their nightmarish 2021 campaign. During that ill-fated season, the Twins finished last, 20 games back of the division winning White Sox. This year, after leading the AL Central for most of the season, Minnesota now finds itself 2.5 games behind the Cleveland Guardians in a tie for second place with the Chicago White Sox after losing four out of five in Southern California against the Dodgers and Angels.
The unexpected free agent signing of shortstop Carlos Correa (4) along with the long-term contract extension Byron Buxton (25) received in the offseason have helped propel the Twins to an unexpected lead in the AL Central for most of the season. After missing over 100 games last season with injuries, a healthier Buxton is third in the AL in homers behind only Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez.
While their chief rivals for division supremacy were largely inert, the Twins were aggressive at the trade deadline addressing their primary needs, making several deals to augment a pitching staff that was eighth in the AL in runs allowed. Minnesota had seen projected rotation members Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and rookie Josh Winder fall victim to the injury bug, and while they got reasonable productivity from their replacements (Devin Smeltzer and Chris Archer), they sought upgrades and innings to their starting staff. They added 27-year-old Tyler Mahle from the Reds, who is controlled through the 2023 season, for three minor league prospects, to slot in behind righties Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray (another trade acquisition from Cincinnati).
Given that the Twins were last in the AL in save percentage, having blown 22 of their 43 opportunities to date (they traded their best returning reliever, Taylor Rogers, to the Padres before the season to acquire Paddack and Emilio Pagan), they sought to bulk up their pen to help rookie Jhoan Duran (1-3 with a 2.03 ERA) late in games. To that end Derek Falvey (Twins President of Baseball Operations) and Thad Levine (Senior Vice President and General Manager) concocted two separate deals, netting them Orioles closer Jorge Lopez (4-6, 1.75, 20 saves) and Tigers set-up man Michael Fulmer (4-4, 3.00).
Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli’s challenge is to lead his team to their first postseason win since 2004 and break a streak of 18 straight losses, the longest streak of futility in the history of North American professional sports.
Lopez immediately became manager Rocco Baldelli’s go-to reliever in the ninth inning, and Fulmer figures to join the late inning mix as well. Those relievers will likely help the Twins be less dependent upon Pagan, whose 5.10 ERA and 9 HR allowed in just 42.1 IP had led to multiple lost leads for Minnesota, and Tyler Duffey, whose 4.91 ERA and 8 HR allowed in 44 IP led to his release by the club this past weekend. With those additions, the Twins deadline swaps improved their chances of making the playoffs by 7.4% (by Fangraphs estimation). By contrast, the White Sox (-4.9%) and Guardians (-9.1%) saw their chances of earning a postseason berth drop as a result of their relative inactivity.
It would be unwise to uniformly conflate activity at the deadline with team success. The 2021 Braves certainly proved that they could rescue a season teetering on the edge of contention with some well-timed trades to inject talent into roster places deemed lacking, and have a World Series championship to show for their efforts. The 2022 trade deadline was surely dominated by the San Diego Padres, who added 23-year old hitting savant Juan Soto and three other impactful assets to their roster thanks to the ministrations of GM A.J. Preller. Since Soto and his new brethren debuted for the Friars, they’ve gone 1-5. You still have to play the game on the field, not in the transactions section.
Luis Arraez continues to impress in his fourth season with the Twins, leading the Majors with a .333 batting average while having already established career highs in runs, hits, doubles and total bases.
The Twins haven’t had a single superstar player experience a career year to help catapult their squad from last place in 2021 to first place this season, but they’ve gotten above average productivity from nearly every single lineup spot thus far in 2022. Luis Arraez’ .333 batting average leads the Majors, and his team best .399 On-Base % is second in the AL to only Houston’s Yordan Alvarez. Arraez’ versatility has been a huge boon for the Twins, playing games at first, second and third base, and his quality at-bats out of the leadoff position helps set the tone for an attack that is fourth in the league in runs/game at 4.47, and OB% at .320, behind only AL East behemoths New York and Toronto. Shocking free-agent signee Carlos Correa has stabilized the shortstop defense, and also injected another quality bat into the middle of the lineup to help Jorge Polanco and Byron Buxton fuel the offense.
Correa, who signed a three-year, $105 million deal to leave Houston and become Minnesota’s shortstop, joined Byron Buxton, who the Twins inked to a seven-year, $100 million dollar extension that allows the club to feature the top two picks of the 2012 draft in the same lineup each night. Aside from the catching slot (where Ryan Jeffers and Gary Sanchez combine for a 91 OPS+), each of the other positions in the batting order contains a Twins hitter who produces at an above league average level, allowing the club to build and sustain rallies. Jose Miranda has been the most impactful rookie batter, hitting .275/.319/.458 with 11 HRs and 47 RBIs thus far, joining Jhoan Duran as minor league system products who have made a huge difference in reversing the club’s fortunes in 2022. Miranda is the cousin of Hamilton creator Lin-Manuel Miranda, and it is safe to say the rookie slugger is not “throwing away his shot” to help the Twins get back to the playoffs.
In just 86 games this season, Byron Buxton has already set career highs with 28 home runs and 51 RBI’s, sparking a revitalized Twins offense that ranks fourth in the American League in runs scored.
Should Miranda and his teammates succeed in winning the AL Central and returning to the postseason for the fourth time in the past six seasons, they will be faced with an ignominious reality: the Minnesota Twins have lost 18 consecutive postseason contests, the longest such streak in the history of professional sports. Their last playoff victory was back in the ALDS in 2004, when Twins ace Johan Santana outdueled Mike Mussina and the Yankees in a 2-0 triumph. The roster has obviously changed over the intervening 18 seasons, and recently imported players like Correa, Sanchez, Gio Urshela and Sonny Gray have all been members of teams that have won postseason series in their careers. Baldelli will hope that their experience and performance can help the rest of the talented Minnesota roster finally break their historic streak, and perhaps even advance to the World Series for the first time since the 1991 season. In a season where most of the attention in the American League has fallen on the Yankees, Astros and Blue Jays, the Twins are counting on their new imports to help erase one entry in the history books while aspiring to add a much more desirable chapter to their franchise story.
