BY J.A. SCHWARTZ
For the past seven seasons, the road to the Super Bowl in the American Football Conference went through Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. In each of those campaigns, Mahomes led his teammates to the Conference Championship, advancing to the Super Bowl five times. For the first time since the 2018 season, the playoffs will commence without Kansas City in pursuit of the Lombardi trophy, as the Chiefs were eliminated from playoff contention in the same game that Patrick Mahomes tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his knee, ending his season. The hunt to climb to the top of the AFC will feature some new aspirants, including Jacksonville and New England, two teams that combined to go 8-26 in 2024. Aside from those two teams, each of the five other AFC playoff qualifiers (Bills, Texans, Chargers, Broncos and Steelers) are repeat participants.
Denver Broncos
AFC West Champions
#1 seed
For the first time since 2015, the Denver Broncos sit atop the AFC West with a 14-3 record, a throne that had been the exclusive domain of the Kansas City Chiefs for the past nine seasons. Sean Payton and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph have helped to mold a stingy defense that has been at the heart of the Broncos success the past two seasons. In both years, Denver has ranked in the top four in terms of points allowed, and in the top two in average yards allowed per running and passing attempt. The defense has been anchored by a dominant pash rush, which has seen the Broncos lead the entire league with 68 sacks (the next best team had 57) and a 29.8% pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks per passing attempt. Nik Bonitto leads the team with 14 sacks, but an astounding six other players have at least 4. That defense has been a pivotal factor in the Denver’s capacity to win one-score games, leading to a record-tying 11 victories in such contests.
Second year quarterback Bo Nix can also be credited with some of the glory for that achievement, leading his charges on game winning drives seven times in 2025, tops in the league. Nix has thrown for 25 TDs (against 11 interceptions) and 3931 yards, leading to an 87.8 passer rating, figures that are all nearly identical to his 2024 efforts as a rookie. Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin (Nix’s teammate for two seasons at Oregon) have combined for 139 catches, 1726 yards and 13 TDs. The twin engines of J.K Dobbins and RJ Harvey fuel the Denver rushing attack, posting 1312 yards between them, resulting in 11 rushing scores. Payton has brought teams he has coached to the playoffs in 11 of his 18 years as a head coach, but is only 9-9 in the postseason through 2024. If he hopes to add to the only Super Bowl he has won (with Drew Brees and New Orleans after the 2009 season), he’ll need to rely upon his dominant pass rush to make life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. Given that the Broncos earned the first round bye and home field through the AFC Championship game, Denver is the odds-on favorite to emerge from a very competitive playoff bracket.
New England Patriots
AFC East Champions
#2 seed
After coaching the Titans for six seasons, going 54-45 and making the playoffs three times, Mike Vrabel spent 2024 as a consultant for the Cleveland Browns. The Patriots hired him to coach their team before the 2025 season, bringing back a team leader who won three Super Bowl rings with the franchise. Vrabel immediately imprinted his hard-nosed style on a squad that finished 4-13 in 2024 and helped guide his team to a tie for the best record in the AFC East at 14-3. Vrabel allowed his gifted second year quarterback Drake Maye to ratchet up the aggressiveness of the passing game, leading to a team that had the fourth best air attack in the NFL in total yards and led football in net yards per attempt. Maye, who has taken a monstrous leap in his second year with the Patriots, is a legitimate MVP candidate. He completed 72% of his throws, firing 31 touchdowns against eight interceptions and a 113.5 passer rating and 9.46 average net yards per pass attempt, both the best in the game.
The offense was certainly bolstered by free-agent addition Stefon Diggs, who signed a three-year, $69 million dollar deal despite suffering an ACL injury in 2024. Diggs led New England in receptions, and was the primary downfield target for Maye. Rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson, drafted 38th overall in the 2025 draft out of Ohio State, led the team in total scrimmage yards and touchdowns, and justified the faith that his head coach (also a fellow Buckeye) showed in allowing him to be a centerpiece in the New England offensive scheme. The defense was a stout unit in 2025, allowing the fourth fewest points in the league, largely led by players imported to the Pats from other teams. Tackles leader Robert Spillane signed as a free agent after spending his past two seasons in Las Vegas. Sacks leader Harold Landry III was a free agent acquisition who had played his entire NFL career in Tennessee prior to 2025. Both Spillane and Landry III played for Vrabel in the 2018 season, and they would like nothing better than to help put another championship ring on their coach’s finger. With an MVP caliber quarterback and a feisty defense, the road to the Super Bowl may once more lead through New England. Seems like old times for Coach Vrabel.
Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC South Champions
#3 seed
First year Head Coach Liam Coen inherited a Jacksonville team that went 4-13 in 2024. After helping guide Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers to the playoffs (scoring the fourth most points in the league) as their offensive coordinator in 2024, the Jaguars believed he might be able to unlock the best version of quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Despite having been the first overall selection of the 2021 draft, Lawrence entered 2025 having failed to establish himself as an elite signal caller in the NFL. His 63.3% completion percentage, 69/46 TD to INT ratio and 85.0 passer rating were all largely mediocre, numbers that would seem to belie the potential he showed at Clemson to be a franchise quarterback (and to be worthy of the #1 overall selection). Lawrence may have taken some time to learn Coen’s system, but his performance skyrocketed after the midseason acquisition of Jakobi Meyers in a trade with Las Vegas. In the seven games since adding Meyers (who has since been signed to an extension with the club), Lawrence has thrown 20 TDs against just 5 picks, leading to career best figures in passer rating (104.8), and helping the offense average more than 35 points a game. Despite playing in only eight games for the Jags, Meyers is fourth on the club in receptions (42) and third in receiving TDs (3).
The offense has scored the sixth most points in the league (474) and Jacksonville finished 13-4 despite having lost two-way superstar (and #2 overall draft pick in 2025) Travis Hunter to a knee injury after just seven games. Lawrence’s college teammate at Clemson, Travis Etienne (the duo won a National Championship in 2018), had seven rushing TDs and another six scoring receptions to help round out the Jacksonville attack. The Jaguars defense allows only 3.9 yards per carry, fifth best in the league, and that unit has forced 31 turnovers on the season, second only to the Bears. Linebacker Devin Lloyd has been particularly productive in 2025, snatching five interceptions and 1.5 sacks to go with his 81 combined tackles. The Jaguars enter the postseason having won eight straight games (all with Meyers in the lineup), and if Lawrence continues to play like a #1 overall pick, he may well take Liam Coen and the Jags fans on a Super Bowl ride.
Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC North Champions
#4 seed
The NFL season consists of 272 games, and the playoff picture in the AFC was not fully complete until the last game went final, after rookie Baltimore kicker Tyler Loop missed a 44-yard field goal as time expired that would have pushed the Ravens into the playoffs, eliminating Pittsburgh. Head Coach Mike Tomlin has coached the Steelers for 19 seasons, and has yet to suffer a losing campaign, a truly remarkable feat. He has cajoled a deeply flawed roster to a 10-7 record in 2025, winning the AFC North and making the playoffs for the fifth time in the past six seasons, and for the 13th time in his long Steel City tenure. His offense is helmed by the enigmatic Aaron Rodgers, who seemed to save his best throws for the last five minutes of the Steelers’ season, going 11-14 in the fourth quarter for 133 yards against Baltimore, finding Calvin Austin with the go ahead score with 55 ticks left on the clock. Rodgers was brilliant when it mattered most, in stark contrast to his ordinary performance in the other 60 plus quarters of the season, which saw him throw for a career-low 207 yards/game. Rodgers, a likely first ballot Hall Of Famer, still limited costly mistakes, turning the ball over only eight times, making him a perfect fit for the conservative Steeler attack. Kenneth Gainwell has emerged as the key piece in the offense, leading the team with 73 catches out of the backfield and adding 537 yards on the ground to contribute eight TDs on the year. DK Metcalf, their primary downfield threat, missed the last two games of the season after punching a fan in week 16, is slated to return for the playoffs. Metcalf led the team with 850 yards and six touchdowns through the air, and his 14.4 yards per catch was tops on the roster.
Pittsburgh had a +12 turnover differential in 2025, and depends on their defense to create short fields for the offense, forcing 27 turnovers and totaling 48 sacks. Alex Highsmith, Nick Herbig, T.J. Watt and Keeanu Benton combined for 29 sacks, and 36-year-old tackle Cam Heyward still clogs the middle, recording 3.5 sacks and 78 tackles on the year. Tomlin has been to two Super Bowls over his 19 years, winning his only title back in 2008. Since 2011 (the year the Steelers were last in the Super Bowl), Tomlin has led the team to a 3-9 postseason record, and he’s lost each of his last six playoff games on the sidelines. It will take every bit of the skill and daring in Rodgers right arm to guide this roster to a deep postseason run, but Mike Tomlin always has his teams ready to play.
Houston Texans
Wild Card
#5 seed
Head Coach DeMeco Ryans took over the Texans in 2023, following three consecutive seasons where the club lost at least 12 games. Under Ryans’ guidance, Houston has won at least ten games in three straight campaigns, and has made three straight playoff appearances for the first time in franchise history. Ryans deserves to be recognized for the job he’s done in transforming the Texans into consistent winners, but the trade of DeShaun Watson to Cleveland, and the draft pick haul that resulted from that transaction, should also be recognized as a huge factor in the success of the organization since Ryans came aboard. Armed with the draft capital to make bold moves, Houston traded the 2023 first round pick they received from Cleveland (12th overall) to Arizona in a package that netted them the third overall pick in that draft. Their own selection at second, giving them consecutive picks, was used to draft C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson, two players who have been instrumental in the Texans’ turnaround under Ryans.
Stroud won the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023, and has proven a reliable passer, with a 93.4 rating over his three years in Houston. The Texans have flourished in 2025 despite mediocre offensive metrics, at least in part because they don’t turn the ball over. Their 12 turnovers were second fewest in the league, allowing Stroud and his playmakers to maximize their opportunities to score. Fortunately for Houston, they haven’t needed many points, because their defense is among most dominant in the NFL. Through 16 games, they led the league in fewest points allowed, fewest yards allowed, and lowest adjusted net yards per passing attempt, making life miserable for opposing offenses. Will Anderson (12) and Danielle Hunter (15) are the primary edge rushers, combining for 35 tackles for loss as well as 45 total quarterback hits between them. Houston also features arguably the best coverage unit in football, led by Derek Stingley Jr., who is one of four defensive backs with four interceptions for the Texans. Despite their average offensive performance, Houston is sixth in the league in point differential, at +109. Houston has smothered opposing offenses all season, and enter the playoffs having won nine straight games, making them a force to contend with in the march to the AFC title game.
Buffalo Bills
Wild Card
#6 seed
For the seventh consecutive season, the Buffalo Bills will vie for a Super Bowl berth this postseason, a quest that has eluded the franchise since 1993. The tandem of Head Coach Sean McDermott and Josh Allen has managed to win at least 10 games in each of their last seven campaigns, though their streak of five straight AFC East crowns came to an end in 2025 as the Patriots usurped the throne from them. Defending MVP Josh Allen certainly did his part again this season, displaying his twin trademarks of excellence and durability. Allen has started 123 straight games, the longest of any quarterback in the league, a remarkable achievement given both his capacity to scramble (112 carries, 579 yards with 14 touchdowns) and the inherent danger of the position. Allen continues to excel throwing the ball as well, posting a career best 69.3% completion rate and a 102.2 passer rating (third and fifth in the league, respectively), accounting for 39 total touchdowns (rushing and passing combined), which led the NFL.
Allen has had a worthy partner in the Buffalo backfield this season, as James Cook paced all running backs with 1621 yards averaging a stout 5.2 yards per carry, tied for second in the game. The Bills running game led the league in total touchdowns (29) and yards and was second in average yards per carry, forcing opposing defenses to choose between stacking the box against Cook or dropping into coverage to slow Allen. Neither approach was particularly effective in 2025, leading to 481 points for the Buffalo offense, fourth in the NFL. The Bills defense in 2025 featured a stark dichotomy, allowing a league worst 5.3 yards/carry on the ground, but stifling opponents’ passing games by giving up the fewest air yards in the game. If McDermott and Allen are finally going to break through and earn a trip to the Super Bowl, they’ll likely require their run defense to step up, giving Allen and Cook a chance to display their brilliance on the other side of the ball.
Los Angeles Chargers
Wild Card
#7 seed
Two seasons ago, Jim Harbaugh took over as Head Coach of the Chargers after leading Michigan to a controversial College Football National Championship. With Justin Herbert at the helm, the franchise has qualified for the playoffs in each of Harbaugh’s two seasons, earning an AFC Wild Card in 2025. Herbert isn’t having his best statistical season, but he’s played through a broken bone in his left hand that he suffered in early December, and remains the key to any postseason success that Los Angeles might have. Herbert has only posted a 5.94 adjusted net yards per attempt, a figure that is 24th in the league among QBs largely due to the volume of sacks (54, second highest in the league) he’s endured behind an injury-ravaged offensive line.
Their starting offensive tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, have missed all but six games in 2025 (all started by Alt), and neither will feature in the Chargers postseason contests. With their offensive line in a state of flux all season, the Chargers scored 368 points, 20th in the league. Their defense allowed the ninth fewest points (and fifth fewest yards) in the league, and was as responsible for the team’s success this season as any other aspect of the team. Linebackers Tuli Tuipulotu, Odafe Oweh and the ageless Khalil Mack combined for 26 sacks, and veteran defensive backs Tony Jefferson and Donte Jackson each snared four interceptions for the unit. Any hope that Harbaugh and the Chargers can win the first Super Bowl in franchise history rests squarely on the shoulders of Herbert, who will endeavor to leverage his elite arm talent behind a line that might not give him the time he requires to fully unleash it.
Fearless Predictions (not necessarily accurate):
Wild Card Round:
Texans over Steelers
Patriots over Chargers
Jaguars over Bills
Divisional Round:
Broncos over Texans
Patriots over Jaguars
Conference Championship:
Patriots over Broncos
Super Bowl 60:
Seahawks over Patriots
