Martinez Tribune The website of the Martinez Tribune.
BY J.A. SCHWARTZ
Following yesterday’s American League preview, we now turn our focus to the National League, with the 106 win Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the St. Louis Cardinals, winners of 19 of their last 22 games (including a franchise record 17 in a row), Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium.
National League East Champion:
Atlanta Braves
The Braves won the NL East despite losing arguably their best player, Ronald Acuna Jr., to a torn ACL on July 10th. They also had to navigate the season without Marcell Ozuna, who played in only 48 games before breaking two fingers, and has since been on Administrative Leave as MLB investigates a May claim of domestic violence against him.
In his first full season, Austin Riley played 160 out of a possible 161 games for the Braves, putting up MVP caliber numbers. The 24-year old batted .303 while ripping 33 home runs and 107 RBI’s.
GM Alex Anthopoulos did a masterful job moving to replace his injured stars, trading to add outfielders Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall, Eddie Rosario and Joc Pederson, each of whom contributed to the Braves run to the division crown. The heart of the offense is still the homegrown infield quartet of Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson and Austin Riley, each of whom hit at least 27 HR’s this season, while playing in 150 games or more. The offense is third in the league in runs scored, second in home runs, and will be difficult to stymie in the postseason.
The pitching staff, long the strong suit of the Atlanta franchise, is not the dominant collection of Cy Young candidates of their 1990’s heyday. Their top starter is veteran Charlie Morton, who’s established a clutch postseason reputation with a 7-3 record and 3.38 ERA to go with the 2017 World Series ring that he earned with Houston for his Game 7 performance on the road against the Dodgers. Lefty Max Fried (14-7, 3.04), will get the ball in Game 2 of the NLDS. The bullpen is solid, but lefty closer Will Smith has been less than a sure thing, with a 3.49 ERA and seven losses while allowing 11 HR’s. If the Braves hope to advance past Milwaukee into the NLCS, they’ll need to get a better performance from their pen holding leads.
National League Central Champion:
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have ridden their top three starting pitchers to an NL Central division title, their fourth straight playoff berth. Corbin Burnes may be the favorite for the NL Cy Young Award, and Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta have all made at least 25 starts, and are second, fifth and ninth, respectively, in the NL in ERA among pitchers with at least 100 IP. The best closer in the league may well be lefty Josh Hader, whose 34 saves and 1.25 ERA lead the Brewers pen. He would normally be set up by 2020 NL Rookie of the Year Devin Williams, who had a 2.50 ERA in 54 innings. Both Hader and Williams get punch outs at an elite rate, with Hader leading the NL with 15.45 k/9. Unfortunately for the Brewers Williams will likely miss the entire playoffs after breaking a bone in his pitching hand punching a wall during Milwaukee’s division title celebration. His absence will certainly hinder the Brewers chances of advancing deep into the NL playoffs.
Corbin Burnes had a breakout season for Milwaukee, establishing himself as a frontrunner for the Cy Young Award with an 11-5 record to go along with a MLB leading 2.43 ERA and 234 strikeouts in just 167 innings. The St. Mary’s grad also combined with Josh Hader for just the second no-hitter in Brewers franchise history.
Batters who put the ball in play against this staff face a consistently good fielding team, buoyed by Kolten Wong and Willy Adames (acquired from Tampa midseason) up the middle and outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Jackie Bradley Jr., each of whom rank in the top quarter of their positions defensively.
Milwaukee’s offense was only sixth in the NL in runs scored, but managed to score enough to support their elite pitching and defense. Avasail Garcia leads the team with 29 HR, and former NL MVP Christian Yelich, despite a down year, remains a dangerous hitter. Infielders Luis Urias, Wong and Adames contribute above league average productivity at their positions, and trade acquisition Eduardo Escobar also provides power. The Brewers will likely go as far as their starting pitching takes them, and it would be unwise to discount their capacity to embark upon a deep run this fall.
National League West Champion:
San Francisco Giants
The Giants had the best record in baseball, and set a franchise record with 107 wins. Nobody saw this collection of talent as being capable of such a feat back in March, but they’ve proven the doubters wrong all season, and will get to show the entire country just how good they really are in the playoffs.
An 11-year veteran seeking his third World Series ring with San Francisco, Brandon Crawford set career highs with 24 home runs, 90 RBI’s and a .298 batting average while only playing 138 games.
Their mid 30’s veterans Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Evan Longoria are all outhitting their career levels. That core group is augmented by reclamation project successes Mike Yastrzemski, Darin Ruf and Lamonte Wade, each of whom maximized their batting skills with San Francisco after being cast off by other organizations. Trade deadline import Kris Bryant helped solidify outfield productivity, strengthening an already potent lineup. The Giants also hit the long ball, pacing the league with 240 homers. Unfortunately, Belt fractured his thumb in the season’s final week, and his availability for the postseason is uncertain. Manager Gabe Kapler, a lock for the NL Manager of the Year Award, does a masterful job of mixing and matching his lineups to get the most from his roster, and will surely deploy his charges adroitly to overcome the loss of their lefty slugger.
The Giants pitching staff may not boast the Cy Young caliber arms that their rivals in L.A. do, but they’ve managed to be second in the NL to the Dodgers in ERA thanks to a group that leads the senior circuit in three key categories: walks allowed, HR allowed and ground ball rate. When your pitchers keep runners off base and keep the ball out of the air, big innings are harder to come by. Kevin Gausman is the foundation of the staff, with a 14-6 record and a 2.87 ERA. He is joined by fellow righties Anthony DeSclafani and organizational breakout Logan Webb, whose 11-3 record with a 3.03 ERA represents a dramatic improvement over his first two seasons with the club. The bullpen houses six relievers with ERA’s below 2.72, led by saves leader Jake McGee and sidewinder Tyler Rogers, and that group allowed the Giants to win games late by keeping opponents in check. The Giants have been doubted all year, but they’ll get the chance to play the winner of the Dodgers-Cardinals Wild Card game with home field advantage wrapped up thru the World Series and their pitching lined up to optimize their best arms. It would be foolish to continue to question their ability to win a title.
National League Wild Card #1:
Los Angeles Dodgers
The 2021 Dodgers are arguably the best team in baseball. The 2020 World Series Champions led the majors in run differential at +264, and have managed to win 106 games despite having lost arguably their best starting pitcher, Trevor Bauer, at the end of June for the rest of the season. 2019 MVP Cody Bellinger also suffered through a sub-par injury plagued season.
Despite coming off a subpar season by his standards, Mookie Betts still managed to hit 23 home runs for the Dodgers in pursuit of his third World Series title in four years. In a five year stretch starting in 2016, he never finished lower than eighth in MVP voting.
Even without Bauer, the Dodgers can trot out a devastating starter every night, led by NL Cy Young Award contender and midseason trade acquisition Max Scherzer. Scherzer’s 2.46 ERA was second in baseball among starting pitchers, and he’s followed by Walker Buehler (16-4, 2.47) and Julio Urias (20-3, 2.96), the only 20-game winner in baseball this season. Franchise icon Clayton Kershaw left his last start Friday night with elbow pain, and might miss the postseason. Even without Kershaw, their rotation may be the only one in baseball to match up with the Brewers. The Dodgers pen might not be as formidable as the Brewers, but it is deep, led by Kenley Jansen, whose 38 saves were second in the NL. Blake Treinen and Phil Bickford handle setup duties.
The Los Angeles offense led the NL in runs, and can build rallies in a number of ways. They have seven starting players who get on base at a .350 clip or above, the only NL team to feature such a balanced lineup. Max Muncy leads the team with 36 HR and 93 RBI, and trade acquisition Trea Turner led the Majors in hits and batting average (.328), the NL in stolen bases, and was a major catalyst for the top of the Dodgers lineup down the stretch. When the defending champs can add players like Scherzer and Turner to an already dynastic core, a repeat is very much a possibility.
National League Wild Card #2:
St. Louis Cardinals
It may have taken a winning streak that stretched to 17 games in late September to qualify for the Wild Card, but the Cardinals find themselves in the postseason for the 35th time in franchise history. That winning streak is the longest in the National League in 70 years, since Willie Mays and Bobby Thompson’s New York Giants won 16 straight in 1951, and ended the day after they punched their ticket to the playoffs as the NL’s 2nd Wild Card. On September 7th, the Cards had a 2.8% chance to make the playoffs according to Fangraph’s odds tracker. Just 19 days later, they had clinched the NL’s last postseason slot.
Arriving in St.Louis after eight seasons with the Rockies, Nolan Arenado had another solid year, hitting 35 homers on the way to 105 RBI’s during his first season with the Cards. A Gold Glove winner every year he’s been in the Majors, very few have ever protected the hot corner any better defensively.
The St. Louis offense is driven by a trio of right-handed power hitters Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill and Nolan Arenado, each of whom hit at least 30 HR’s in 2021. That group helped fuel their September charge into the playoffs, and it will fall to them to carry an otherwise mediocre group of Cardinal hitters. Venerable franchise icon Yadier Molina remains a steadying force behind the plate, but his offensive contributions have progressively diminished in the past few seasons, and he’s barely a league average hitter at this point in his storied career.
Adam Wainwright, 39, is the de facto ace of the staff, posting a 17-7 record with a 3.05 ERA this season. Manager Mike Schildt has already named Wainwright his starter for the NL Wild Card game, so their playoff destiny will reside squarely on his gifted right shoulder. Should they advance, Jack Flaherty, who has missed the past month with a shoulder issue, is likely to get a start in the NLDS, along with veterans Jon Lester and Miles Mikolas. The St. Louis pen is led by resurgent righties Giovanny Gallegos and Alex Reyes, who have combined for 43 saves over 153 innings this year. They figure to have the ball late in the game with the Cardinals protecting a lead.
The Redbird pitching staff works in front of the second best defense in the National league. The Cardinals turned 71.5% of balls in play into outs, behind only the Dodgers in defensive efficiency. In fact, the top five teams in that fielding metric in the NL all made the playoffs this year. Center fielder Harrison Bader rates as the top fielder by Baseball Reference’s Total Zone rating, and Molina, Goldschmidt, Arenado and shortstop Paul DeJong rank in the top four at their positions by that same metric.
Predictions:
NL Wildcard:
Dodgers over Cardinals
NLDS:
Brewers over Braves
Giants over Dodgers
NLCS:
Giants over Brewers
WORLD SERIES:
Giants over White Sox
