BY J.A. SCHWARTZ
The NL Central has been a two team race between the Cardinals and Brewers in recent seasons and will likely be again in 2023, with the rebuilding Cubs probably still a year away and the frugal Reds and Cubs barely competitive.
This is the third of six division previews in the lead-up to opening day on Thursday March 30th
St. Louis Cardinals
Nolan Arenado batted .293 with 30 home runs and 103 RBI’s for the Cardinals last season while winning his tenth consecutive Gold Glove Award and finishing third in the MVP voting.
The Cardinals franchise may be the most consistently competitive club in the National League, having only posted a single losing season (2007) this century. They’ve qualified for the postseason in 16 of the 23 seasons since 2000, winning four NL pennants and two World Series championships. The 2022 team was third in the league in runs scored and fourth in ERA, winning 93 games en route to the division title before being swept in the Wild Card round by Philadelphia. Despite a payroll that was 13th in the game last year, they featured NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, who finished third in the voting for that award. That duo combined for 65 HRs and 218 RBIs while providing Gold Glove caliber defense at the corners. The club continued to promote quality farm system products to the major league team, with Brendan Donovan and his .394 OB% being the most notable (third in NL ROY voting, Gold Glove winner at the utility spot) but Nolan Gorman and Lars Nootbaar were also key lineup components. Top prospect Jordan Walker may well be the next talented young player to help the parent club, further bolstering a well-balanced lineup. With the retirements of franchise icons Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina (to be replaced behind the plate by ex-Cub Willson Contreras), it will be left to 41-year-old Adam Wainwright to be the bridge from past glories to those in the club’s immediate future.
Milwaukee Brewers
In his first full season in Milwaukee, Elk Grove native Rowdy Tellez had a breakout power season for the Brewers, belting 35 home runs to go along with 89 runs batted in.
The 2022 Brewers missed the playoffs for the first time in five seasons despite winning 86 games. They had the sixth best offense and pitching in the NL, but lacked a superstar hitter in a balanced lineup. Aside from their catching position, they fielded league average or better batters at every position, but only Hunter Renfroe (now an Angel) broke the 800 OPS mark with his 807 last year. They got 66 HRs from Rowdy Tellez and Willy Adames, and attempted to upgrade the lineup with offseason additions William Contreras and Jesse Winker. Top prospect Garrett Mitchell should be the full time CF in 2023, making the Milwaukee brew that much more potent at the plate. Their starting pitching remains the strength of the club, and with righties Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff at the top of the rotation, Milwaukee will be competitive once again in 2023.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs jumpstarted their rebuilding program by signing shortstop Dansby Swanson to a seven year contract to anchor their infield. The former top pick in the MLB draft had a career year for Atlanta last season, playing in all 162 games while hitting 25 homers with 96 RBI’s.
After six straight winning seasons, and the franchise’s first World Series title (2016) after a 108-year era without one, Chicago has posted two consecutive losing seasons. President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer sought to change that dynamic, and a frenzied offseason saw the Cubs remake their roster. They replaced the departed Willson Contreras with free agent Tucker Barnhart, gambled that former MVP Cody Bellinger can re-discover his batting stroke, and added Eric Homer and Trey Mancini to thicken the lineup. They saved their biggest move to upgrade at the shortstop position, signing Dansby Swanson to a seven-year $177 million dollar contract. With as many as five new regulars in the batting order, the Cubs will hope to improve an offense that was below the NL average in 2022. Jameson Taillon (4 years, $168 million) will join Marcus Stroman atop the Chicago rotation, which could benefit from the first full season from Hayden Wesneski (3-2, 2.18 in 33 innings), acquired from the Yankees for reliever Scott Effross at the deadline last year. Most of the Cubs best prospects are at least a year away from helping contribute at the major league level, so the North Side faithful will rely upon Hoyer’s machinations to bring them back to the postseason in 2023.
Cincinnati Reds
Despite winning 83 games in 2021, GM Nick Krall was pointed in noting that his offseason plans would be determined by the realities of the team budget. This proved to be prophetic, as the 2021 Reds spent $126 million on their payroll, and the projected tab for the 2023 version of the club checks in at $70 million, ahead of only the destitute Pirates among the NL hierarchy. Krall has offloaded star pitchers Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Sonny Gray as well as hitters Nick Castellanos, Jesse Winker, Brandon Drury, Eugenio Suarez, Tucker Barnhart over the past two years, collecting prospects in the process, but gutting the team on the field with franchise icon Joey Votto likely also soon to depart. Promising young pitchers Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo have debuted in the aftermath, and the club anticipates the imminent arrival of 6’5” shortstop prospect Elly De La Cruz (#8 overall among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects) as early as late summer of 2023. Until then Cincinnati fans will continue to suffer at the hands of President and CEO Phil Castellini, who famously suggested that frustrated fans should “be careful what they ask for”, implying that moving the team was the only way to compete in the current economic system.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The 2023 Pittsburgh Pirates will extend a streak their fans are loathe to acknowledge: They will once again spend less on their payroll than any other NL club for the sixth consecutive season. Since 2019, they’ve finished last in the NL Central each year, and last tasted the sweet nectar of the postseason in 2015. This season does not figure to be any different. Pirate fans can be excited about their young hitters, a list that includes Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and 6’7” shortstop O’Neil Cruz, but once those players start to become expensive, they’ll likely be trade bait, as Reynolds currently is. Only Hayes has been inked to a long term extension (8 years, $70 million), but he’s the only Pirate who will earn an eight figure salary this season. The club brought in graybeards Rich Hill and Carlos Santana as well as former franchise icon Andrew McCutchen in an effort to placate loss-weary Pittsburgh fans, but they understand the reality of their plight. Another last place finish is the likeliest outcome for this once proud franchise.
