Martinez Tribune The website of the Martinez Tribune.
BY J.A. SCHWARTZ
The Toronto Blue Jays came within inches of bringing the World Series trophy back to Canada for the first time since 1993, but Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s dash to score the title winning run in the bottom of the ninth in Game 7 fell short by mere centimeters. The Dodgers would go on to claim victory in a riveting extra inning affair, successfully defending their title and sentencing Canadian baseball fans to a long, cold winter of regret and lamenting what might have been. The Blue Jays enter 2026 as one of seven American League squads with championship caliber rosters. In no particular order, here are the contenders in the Junior Circuit:
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays are the reigning American League pennant winners, and despite their World Series disappointment, they spent the offseason fortifying an already formidable roster. Having made the playoffs in three of the past four seasons, General Manager Ross Atkins slammed his foot down on the accelerator, adding nearly $350 million in free agent guarantees to send the payroll soaring north of $300 million for the first time in franchise history. The club lost long-time shortstop Bo Bichette to the Mets, but Atkins added Dylan Cease (seven years, $210 million), Japanese slugger Kazuma Okamoto (four years, $60 million), Korean Baseball MVP Cody Ponce (three years, $30 million), as well as reliever Tyler Rogers and Max Scherzer to insure that the Jays have the talent required to return to the Fall Classic this October.
Vlad Guerrero Jr. was two outs away from a World Series MVP Award and the Blue Jays first title since 1993 before the Dodgers snatched their ring. Returning with a roster largely improved from last season, Guerrero and Toronto are hopefully 2026 will be their year.
Their lineup, which scored more runs than any AL team aside from the Yankees, returns intact, aside from losing Bichette. Toronto led baseball with a .333 on base percentage, and Okamoto is exactly the kind of contact hitter with good plate discipline that helped fuel their ascendancy in the AL East last season. A resurgent 2025 season from 35-year-old George Springer (career high .399 OBP, 32 HR,84 RBIs) helped fuel the attack, and this year’s offense will hope to get a major contribution from Vlad Guerrero Jr., (23 HR, 84 RBI) as he enters his age 26 season. Toronto helped suppress opposing offenses by featuring the top fielding team in baseball by defensive runs saved, narrowly edging the Cubs for that honor, and this year’s glove work may well improve with the shift of Andres Gimenez to shortstop on a full time basis to replace Bichette. Their starting pitching is deep, with Cease, Kevin Gausman and breakout star Trey Yesavage fronting the rotation. Ponce and Scherzer will likely round out the mounds corps, while closer Jeff Hoffman (33 saves) will hope to forget allowing the game tying dinger to Dodger Miguel Rojas in Game 7 with Toronto just two outs from victory. Toronto has all the pieces to repeat as AL pennant winners, and an entire nation of fans stand at the ready to take that final step towards ultimate triumph this fall.
New York Yankees
Every season that doesn’t end with a title is a failure for Yankee fans, but they’re getting used to the feeling. It’s been 16 years since they last stood atop the mountain as champions, despite making the playoffs in eight of the past nine seasons and finishing second in run differential (+164) in 2025. They won 94 games (the same as Toronto) in 2025, but were dismissed from the playoffs by those same Blue Jays, fueling another offseason of angst among their faithful fans. They employ arguably the best hitter in the game in Aaron Judge (53 HR, 114 RBI), who led all of baseball in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage (.331/.457/.688) for the second consecutive season. Judge’s transcendence carried the team, resulting in the best offense in the game: New York led the majors in runs, HRs, walks and slugging percentage. After re-signing free agents Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt, the lineup figures to be similarly dangerous.
The pitching staff will be fronted by Max Fried (19-5, 2.86) and revelatory young flamethrower Cam Schlittler (4-3, 2.96), whose Game 3 brilliance-eight innings, five hits, zero runs and 12 strikeouts against Boston in the deciding game of the Wild Card Series-portends potential greatness for the 24-year-old. The rotation figures to get stronger as the year progresses, as both Carlos Rodon (18-9, 3.09) and ace Gerrit Cole (153-80, 3.18 career totals) figure to return from injury by June, giving manager Aaron Boone an embarrassment of dominant options to throw at opponents. The bullpen was a weakness in 2025, as the unit posted a 4.37 ERA, 23rd in the game. Trade deadline additions David Bednar and Camilo Doval will likely hold down the late innings in the Bronx, but neither reliever gives Yankee fans the kind of confidence they enjoyed during the Mariano Rivera era. As long as Judge is healthy, this team can win it all, but their fortunes in 2026 may well rest upon their pitching staff. If Cole and Rodon come back in vintage form, and Schlittler proves that his late season heroics are sustainable, this is the best team in the American League, one that might finally restore the franchise to their rightful place (according to Yankee fans) atop the baseball world.
Boston Red Sox
The AL East sent three teams to the postseason in 2025, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see that happen again this year. Boston was unable to convince free agent Alex Bregman to remain with the Red Sox following a single year with the club, but General Manager Craig Breslow busied himself with improving other areas of the roster. In two separate transactions with St. Louis, the Red Sox acquired Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray, players who are still productive veterans, but at 33 and 36, respectively, did not mesh with the competitive timeline for the rebuilding Cardinals. Breslow then lured lefty free agent starter Ranger Suarez to join Garrett Crochet atop the rotation with a five-year, $130 contract. Those two southpaws were a combined 30-13 last season, with an ERA of 2.85. Factoring in Gray and Brayan Bello, many projection systems peg Boston’s rotation as the best in baseball. Closer Aroldis Chapman had arguably his best season in 2025, saving 32 games with a minuscule 1.17 ERA, the lowest in his illustrious career, and he will get the ball in the ninth when Boston leads.
Boston’s Roman Anthony made a splashy debut in 2025, arriving on the scene as a 21 year old and batting .292 in 71 games. He was also a standout for Team USA in the WBC tournament, driving in seven runs in just seven games.
Manager Alex Cora hopes he’ll have a lot of opportunities to hand Chapman the ball, but he’ll need his offense to find ways to score runs without Bregman. The Red Sox were third in the AL with 786 runs, but don’t have a hitter in the lineup who projects to hit even 25 home runs coming into 2026. Roman Anthony, 21, is potentially their best hitter, fresh off a rookie season that saw him hit .292/.396/.463 in just over 300 plate appearances, good enough to finish third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. Anthony strained an oblique muscle in early September, and was unable to play down the stretch, missing the playoff series loss to New York. Six of the nine regulars are 27 or younger, including Gold Glove outfielders Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, who help make Boston’s flycatchers among the most accomplished in the game. Farm system product Marcelo Mayer will hope to nail down an Opening Day roster spot, and lefty pitching prospects Payton Tolle and Connelly Early (both of whom debuted late in 2025 and pitched in the playoffs) figure to be important components of a stretch run towards postseason glory. If the young talent on the roster matures quickly and lives up to its potential, the Red Sox may well make a foray deep into October.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles suffered a last place finish in 2025, winning just 75 games in the rugged AL East. Given that they had made the playoffs in 2023 and 2024, winning at least 90 games each season, last year was unexpectedly dismal. No Baltimore hitter finished the year on the roster with an OPS north of 787 (Gunnar Henderson’s mark), as the only Orioles to exceed that mark-Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Laureano-were dealt at the deadline to San Diego. Nobody in the lineup hit more than 17 HRs or drove in more than 68, which partially explains why the team was 24th in baseball in runs scored. Their young core of homegrown talent: Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg-each had seasons that were worse than their 2024 campaigns aside from Holliday, whose 690 OPS is far less than his #1 overall prospect pedigree would suggest he’s capable of. None of those players are older than 27, and would be expected to show signs of improvement as they enter the prime years of their careers, but it didn’t happen in 2025. To bolster their lifeless lineup, General Manager Mike Elias signed free agent slugger Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million deal and traded oft-injured Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels for outfielder Taylor Ward.
Ward and Alonso hit a combined 74 long balls last year, and they’ll be relied upon to help Baltimore hang more crooked numbers on the scoreboard in 2026. Aside from the five system products listed above, the Orioles will let prospects Samuel Basallo (who Elias has already signed to an eight-year, $67 million contract), Dylan Beavers and Coby Mayo have extended time in the majors to establish themselves, and if even half their young talent lives up to their pedigrees, the O’s will be playoff contenders once again. Elias added two starting pitchers to his existing ace (Trevor Rogers, 9-3, 1.81 ERA), acquiring Shane Baz from Tampa Bay and signing free agent starter Chris Bassitt to help stabilize a staff that was ineffective in 2025. Their 4.60 team ERA was 26th in baseball, though Kyle Bradish looked very strong in his return from elbow surgery late last season (2.53 ERA in six starts) and could be the best pitcher in the rotation by midseason. Baltimore also imported free agent closer Ryan Helsley to finish games, but his 2025 season (3-4, 21 saves, 4.50 ERA) was anything but dominant. If the pitching holds up, and the young hitters take steps towards improvement, Baltimore has every reason to believe they’ll be in the postseason picture coming down the stretch.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers had a 15.5 game lead over Cleveland on July 8th, 2025. They went 28-41 the rest of the way, blowing their division lead to the Guardians, but still managing to make the Wild Card round. The lead they squandered was the largest in the history of the game, a fate softened only by the presence of the Wild Card. They topped Cleveland in that Wild Card Series, eventually bowing out to Seattle in the Divisional Round in a heart stopping Game 5 that lasted 15 innings. In that game, ace Tarik Skubal set a postseason record by striking out seven consecutive batters, but he wasn’t on the mound when the game was eventually decided. Despite that, Skubal (13-6, 2.21) won his second consecutive Cy Young Award, and beat the Tigers in arbitration to earn the largest salary ever awarded via that process at $32 million. He’s a free agent following the season, and Detroit wants to make sure they put the best team possible around him in what could be his final year in Motown. To that end, Scott Harris (President of Baseball Operations) added lefty Framber Valdez (three years, $115 million) and franchise icon Justin Verlander as free agents to upgrade the staff, whose 3.95 ERA was just above the league average in 2025. Harris also inked closer Kenley Jansen (29 saves, 2.59 in 2025), giving manager A.J. Hinch another late inning option to go with Will Vest (22 saves, 3.01). The lineup figures to look about the same as the 2025 version, featuring homegrown sluggers Spencer Torkelson (31 HRs, 78 RBI), Riley Greene (36 HRs, 111 RBI) and Kerry Carptener (26 HRs, 62 RBIs), but it is another farm system product that could help elevate the Tiger lineup in 2026. Kevin McGonigle, 21 was the 37th overall pick in the 2023 draft by Detroit, and is considered the best prospect in the American League. His strong minor league season (.305/.408/.583 with 19 HRs and more walks than strikeouts in A and AA ball) and excellent spring training productivity has positioned him to break camp as the starting shortstop for the club, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him win the Rookie of the Year Award in 2026. As recently as 2024, the Tigers spent $108 million on their entire roster, but they’ve invested $238 in this year’s model, including a whopping $113 on the rotation and Jansen alone. In what may be Skubal’s swan song season, the Tigers are all-in to win the World Series in 2026.
Seattle Mariners
Seattle won the AL West for the first time since 2001, going 90-72 and advancing to the ALCS, where they were defeated by Toronto in a riveting seven game series. Cal Raleigh had a career best season, setting major league records for home runs as a catcher, with 60 (previous record was 48 by Sal Perez) and as a switch hitter (breaking Mickey Mantle’s previous record of 54). Despite his historic season, Big Dumper finished behind Aaron Judge for AL MVP, but he’ll be in the middle of the Mariners order in 2026, joined by fellow mashers Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena, who contributed 59 HRs and 171 RBI in 2025. After watching free agent Jorge Polanco sign with the Mets, President of Baseball Operations Jerry DiPoto traded to acquire Brendan Donovan from St. Louis to be the primary third baseman. Josh Naylor, who came over in a deadline deal with Arizona, re-signed with Seattle, and will likely hit behind Raleigh in a potent and deep Mariners lineup. Their offense clobbered 238 HRs in 2025, second in the AL to the Yankees, and figures to be just as dangerous this season.
Seattle’s Cal Raleigh (29) set the Baseball world on fire last season, blasting 60 home runs to set records for most homers by a catcher or switch hitter while driving in 125 runs to help lead the Mariners to their first berth in the ALCS since 2001.
The strength of the Mariners lies in their elite starting pitching staff, which struck out more batters last season than any other American League rotation. Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert each threw at least 131 innings with no worse than a 3.54 ERA, striking out a combined 533 batters. A bounce back season from command specialist George Kirby (1.31 bb/9 innings for his career) seems likely, giving the rotation a formidable front four. Closer Andres Munoz nailed down 38 saves with a 1.73 ERA in 2025, and he’ll be supported by set up men Matt Brash and Gabe Speier, who combined for a 2.55 ERA last year. Each of Munoz, Brash and Speier punched out opposing hitters at a rate of 30% or better, and will be relied upon by Manager (and former Mariner catcher) Dan Wilson to hold leads in the late innings. Seattle entered the American League in 1977, but have yet to win an AL pennant in their 49 years in the Pacific Northwest. Their 2026 team may well represent the best chance they’ve had to finally break through and win the World Series, joining the Seahawks as champions of their sport in Seattle.
There are a couple other teams that could also figure into the playoff mix in the American League if circumstances align:
Cleveland Guardians
Despite engineering the biggest comeback in MLB history to overcome a 15.5 game lead and win the AL Central, the Guardians enter 2026 having done little this offseason to bolster the roster that back-to-back Manager of the Year Stephen Vogt will have to work with. The front office invested a mere $11.9 million in free agent additions this offseason, while division rival Detroit added $187 million.
Perennial MVP candidate José Ramírez had another productive season in 2025, slugging 30 homers with 85 RBI’s while completing his third 30-30 season with 44 steals to help the Guardians set an MLB record by overcoming a 15.5 game deficit to win the AL Central.
The Guardians have won the past two AL Central titles, but the franchise hasn’t won a World Series since 1948, and they’ll need career best seasons from franchise cornerstone Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan and some of their young pitchers to have a shot to keep pace with the Tigers, but Vogt has done more with less for two straight seasons, so count out the Guardians at your peril.
Houston Astros
The Astros had made the playoffs in eight straight seasons, and had won the AL West four consecutive times en route to the only two championships in franchise history (2017, 2022) before being dethroned by Seattle in 2025. They still feature the ageless Jose Altuve, slugger Yordan Alvarez and 2022 World Series MVP Jeremy Pena, and will also have Carlos Correa back in the lineup all season after reacquiring him via a mid-season deal with the Twins. Japanese import Tatsuya Imai (three years, $54 million) will join ace Hunter Brown (12-9, 2.43) atop a rotation that lost Framber Valdez to the Tigers via free agency. Questions about their outfield productivity and the health of closer Josh Hader hang over the club, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Altuve, Alvarez and Correa in the middle of important rallies come October.
Predictions:
AL East-Toronto Blue Jays
AL Central-Detroit Tigers
AL West-Seattle Mariners
Wild Cards:
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Houston Astros
American League Championship
Seattle Mariners over New York Yankees
World Series
Seattle Mariners over Los Angeles Dodgers
