NFL 2021: Contenders for the Super Bowl

BY J.A. SCHWARTZ

Continuing our countdown of the best teams in the NFL heading into the 2021 season, here’s our Top 8:

8. Los Angeles Rams: When a team can put Aaron Donald, who has won the NFL Defensive Player of the Year twice in the past three seasons, in the middle of a defense that also includes 2020 All Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey, that team should be able to keep opposing offenses from scoring too many points. The Rams are blessed with such talent, but their season will likely hinge on the cannon arm of new quarterback Matthew Stafford, 33, who they acquired from the Lions in an offseason deal.

Head coach Sean McVay is counting on Stafford to be the quarterback Goff could not become. Coming off arguably his two best NFL seasons, with QB ratings of 106 and 96.3 in 2020 and 2021, Stafford will be relied upon to create chunk plays through the air in McVay’s offense. A preseason injury to feature back Cam Akers will put that much more pressure on the passing game, but the Rams have the talent to improve upon last year’s 10-6 season and threaten to unseat the Buccaneers as NFC Champions.

7. San Francisco 49ers: The offseason narrative around the 49ers was centered around the quarterback situation, which dominated the discussion about the team’s direction, both in 2021 and beyond. For now, head coach Kyle Shanahan has indicated that Jimmy Garappolo will begin the season as the starter, but that rookie Trey Lance, the #3 overall pick in this year’s draft, will take snaps as well in specific offensive packages. San Francisco expects to field a championship level roster after a 2020 season marred by significant injuries, and some of the returning players may have as much to say about their chances to win the NFC as their quarterback does.

San Francisco will welcome back George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, both of whom missed significant time in 2020. The team expects both Dee Ford and Nick Bosa to begin the season on the active roster, and the group that lost the third most games to injury among NFL defensive backfields projects to be healthier in 2021. After signing linebacker Fred Warren to a four year contract worth up to $95 million, a record for an off-ball linebacker, San Francisco figures to make life miserable for opposing offenses. If they get the healthy version of Garappolo, who took them to the Super Bowl after the 2019 season, 2021 may well lead to similar heights.

6. Cleveland Browns: The Browns may have the most talented 53-man roster in the NFL. They feature the top running back duo in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and have arguably the best bookend defensive lineman in Myles Garrett and free agent Jadeveon Clowney, both of whom were the #1 overall selections in their draft class. They invested heavily in their secondary this offseason, adding John Johnson III and Troy Hill from the Rams, and drafted Greg Newsome with their top pick in this year’s draft to accompany them in a completely revamped coverage unit.

Odell Beckham Jr. returns from an ACL tear to pair with Jarvis Landry, and fourth year quarterback Baker Mayfield (another former #1 overall pick) will hope to build on his excellent second half in 2020, where he threw 16 TDs against just two picks after week six. Mayfield led the Browns to their first playoff berth since 2002, and their first playoff win since Bill Belichick led the Browns past the Patriots after the 1994 season. First year coach Kevin Stefanski won Coach of the Year for the 2020 season, and he has his sights set on bringing Cleveland to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.

5. Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens will be a formidable team yet again in 2021, as third year quarterback Lamar Jackson tries to bring his squad the AFC championship. Jackson, guided by long-time Baltimore coach John Harbaugh, has made the playoffs in each of his three seasons as quarterback of the Ravens, has won 30 of his 37 starts, with a career passing rating of 102.6. As impressive as he’s been with his arm, however, it is his legs that keep opposing defensive coordinators awake at night. Jackson has rushed for 2211 yards since the start of the 2019 season, averaging 6.6 yards per attempt, the best in the NFL among quarterbacks.

The Ravens will have to find ways to win without second year back JK Dobbins, who will miss the season with a knee injury. The team will depend upon a monstrous defense that allowed the second fewest points in the NFL last year, and Harbaugh aspires to win the Super Bowl for the second time.

4. Green Bay Packers: The Packers appeared on the verge of trading their franchise quarterback Aaron Rodgers at various points this offseason. Rodgers himself vowed he would not report to training camp, and asked several times to be traded from the only team he’s ever played for. Despite the fact that he played last year at age 37, Rodgers was the NFL’s Most Valuable Player, the third time he’s won that award. He’s helmed the Packers to the playoffs in 10 of the 13 seasons he’s been the starter, winning the Super Bowl in 2010. Despite his stellar career, Rodgers is 1-4 in NFC Championship Games, including a loss last year to eventual champion Tampa Bay.

Davonte Adams will return as Rodgers top receiving target, but the offensive line may be hard pressed to give him time to find Adams this year. All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari is not likely to return from an ACL injury for another few weeks, and the team lost center Corey Linsley to the Chargers in free agency. If the offseason discord is any indication of Rodgers feelings about his future intentions, this may well be in his final season in Green Bay. Going out with a Super Bowl victory would be a dramatic closing act to a Hall of Fame career in green and gold.

3. Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen broke through in his third season as a pro, improving his passing accuracy and completion percentage by huge margins over his 2019 levels, and he threatened to win the MVP as a result of those gains. In the process, he helped guide his team into the AFC Championship game, where Buffalo was vanquished by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Allen signed a six-year $258 million contract extension this offseason, insuring that he’ll be the face of the franchise for at least the next half decade. Tredavious White will help anchor the defensive backfield, where the shutdown cornerback will once again draw the coverage assignment on the opposing team’s top receiver.

Buffalo coach Sean McDermott is 38-26 in his four seasons with the franchise, leading them to the playoffs in three time. Prior to McDermott’s tenure, the organization had not been to the playoffs since the 1999 season, and it’s safe to say that expectations for the team have consistently risen under his guidance. Despite being 2-3 in the postseason, McDermott has all the tools, including an MVP candidate in Allen under center, to succeed at the highest level in 2021, and he’ll hope his team can overcome the formidable obstacle represented by Kansas City to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in nearly three decades.

2. Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs have been to the Super Bowl in consecutive seasons, winning the 2019 title over San Francisco, but losing last year’s edition to Tom Brady and Tampa Bay. If Andy Reid and the coaching staff in Kansas City learned anything from their loss to the Buccaneers in February, it’s that their offensive line needed to improve. The Tampa pass rush hassled Mahomes all day in the title game, forcing him to throw two interceptions and sacking him three times in the 31-9 Bucs romp. Kansas City moved swiftly this offseason to address that issue. They traded their first round pick to Baltimore to get two-time Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Brown to protect Mahomes blind side, signed guard Joe Thuney, arguably the best guard on the market, to a five-year, $80 million deal, and imported center Austin Blythe from the Rams to become their starter at that position.

The Chiefs still feature a sizzling quick strike offense led by Mahomes, who will have favorite targets Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce back for another year. Their defense is still anchored by Chris Jones and Frank Clark up front, and Tyrann Mathieu remains the playmaker in the secondary. Reid is 221-130-1 as a head coach, including 91-37 in Kansas City, with seven postseason appearances in his eight seasons there. He’s won his only Super Bowl as the Chiefs head coach, and will seek to add a second as he looks to guide his talented team to a third straight Super Bowl appearance.

1.Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Teams that win the Super Bowl know that roster turnover is inevitable, and that players who had a great season will cash in elsewhere based at least in part on their performance in the championship season. Fans of that team hope the opposite is true, and that their heroes will all return to defend the title they won for their beloved city, forsaking the riches they might find in a new city to “run it back” with all the same cast. The harsh business realities of sports often intervene, making the latter scenario almost impossible to manifest.

Tampa Bay General Manager Jason Licht, however, was hell-bent on making it happen. He managed to retain defensive stalwarts Lavonte David, Ndamukong Suh and Shaquil Barrett, and coaxed Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski to continue to haul in (seven time Super Bowl champion) Tom Brady’s downfield missiles. Playoff bruiser Leonard Fournette was also brought back into the fold to pound the ball against tired opposing defenses to protect late game leads.

Head Coach Bruce Arians couldn’t have asked for a better offseason. At least part of the largesse visited upon these free agents was made possible by Brady himself, who signed a contract extension that created valuable cap space for Licht to work with. Before the draft even started, the Buccaneers had re-signed all 22 starters from their Super Bowl winning roster, a feat unprecedented in the modern free agent era. If winning a championship is the goal, these players must have reasoned their best shot to do it would be with the ageless 44 year-old Tom Brady, who seems to know his way around title quests. They may well be right, and if Brady repeats as Super Bowl champion, nobody will be looking to leave anytime soon.

Predictions:

Regardless of the rankings above, the season won’t be played on paper, and will almost certainly shift based on injury, the emergence of previously unheralded talent, and the delicate chelate of team chemistry, which can ebb and flow in ways difficult to understand or predict. Here are some well-reasoned prognostications that are likely to be folly before the calendar turns to December.

AFC EAST: Buffalo
AFC NORTH: Cleveland
AFC SOUTH: Tennessee
AFC WEST: Kansas City
Wildcards: New England, Baltimore, Los Angeles Chargers

AFC Champion: Cleveland Browns

NFC EAST: Dallas
NFC NORTH: Green Bay
NFC SOUTH: Tampa Bay
NFC WEST: San Francisco
Wildcards: Seattle, Minnesota, Los Angeles Rams,

NFC Champion: Los Angeles Rams

SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS: Cleveland Browns