Feisty 49ers facing uphill battle on the road in NFC Playoffs

BY J.A. SCHWARTZ

Tampa Bay, led by the ageless Tom Brady, will start the defense of their Super Bowl title when the host the Philadelphia Eagles in the first round of the playoffs. The Eagles are the last franchise to defeat Brady in a Super Bowl, and will look to rely upon a running game that led the NFL in yards and touchdowns to keep Brady and the high powered Buccaneer offense on the sidelines.

Second year quarterback Jalen Hurts took over from the traded Carson Wentz, and led the team in rushing attempts (139), yards (784) and yards per carry (5.6). Philadelphia truly committed to their running game, leading the NFL with 159.7 yards/game on the ground, a franchise record. Their run/pass option (RPO) heavy offense (291 such plays led the league) helped them establish an NFL best 3.3 yards before contact on each rushing attempt, something they’ll have to rely upon when they look to unseat the champions.

The Eagles pass defense (11th in the NFL) will be tasked with slowing down the second-highest scoring offense in the league, spearheaded by Brady, who led the NFL in yards (5316) and touchdowns (43) while being protected better than any other QB (22 sacks). Brady has lost key downfield weapons with a season ending injury to Chris Godwin, and the release of the controversial Antonio Brown, but the return of backfield sledgehammer Leonard Fournette gives Brady another option for check-downs. When truly pressed, Brady will look for Rob Gronkowski, whose 55 receptions included six TDs. The Tampa defense featured the third best unit against the run in 2021, allowing the fewest yards to running backs all season, so whichever team imposes its will in that department may help decide the contest. If the Eagles hope to spring the upset, they’ll have to get pressure on Brady and control the clock with their running game, which is easier said than done. Tampa Bay beat the Eagles 28-22 in October.

©DANIEL GLUSKOTER
Deebo Samuel’s breakthrough season helped the 49ers rebound from a 3-5 start to make the playoffs. In his third year, the hybrid threat totaled 1,770 yards with 14 touchdowns and also threw a TD pass.

The Dallas Cowboys will be hosting the 49ers in a battle of two of the most successful franchises the league has ever seen. The two teams have won a combined 10 championships, but neither has claimed one in the past 25 years. From 1981-1995, Dallas or San Francisco won 8 of the 15 Super Bowls played, and they’ve squared off in the NFC Championship game six times, with the Cowboys winning four.

Dallas led the NFL in points scored at 31.2 per game, supported by an offense that gained a league best 407 yards per game. Dak Prescott threw for a career-high 37 touchdowns in 2021, and will likely be targeting Amari Cooper when the Cowboys need a big play. Dallas’ 12-5 record was supported by a defense that was tenth in the league in points allowed, with the most interceptions of any team. Led by rookie first-round draft pick Micah Parsons, whose 13 sacks led the team (and will likely result in the Defensive Rookie of the Year Award) and second year corner Trevon Diggs, whose 11 interceptions led the NFL, the Cowboys have playmakers that can deliver game-changing moments on defense. Dallas led the NFL with a +14 turnover differential.

The 49ers squeaked into the playoffs on the strength of an overtime victory over the Rams in Week 18, clinching the sixth seed in the NFC. In a game they trailed 17-0 at halftime, their rallied to force overtime on an 88-yard drive with just 1:28 remaining, with sore-thumbed Jimmy Garoppolo connecting with Jauan Jennings on a 14-yard strike with 27 seconds remaining. Deebo Samuel has become the most potent weapon San Francisco has, leading all NFL receivers in yards per catch with 18.2 while also leading the team with nine rushing touchdowns.

The 49ers figure to rely upon Samuel and rookie running back Elijah Mitchell to create scoring chances, but they’ll need Garoppolo to be at his best to keep pace with the Cowboys attack. Nick Bosa, who was fourth in the NFL with 15.5 sacks and led the league with 21 tackles for loss, will be key to the 49ers defensive scheme. Bosa and his teammates on defense held opponents to 310 yards per game, third in the league, and were stout against the run, limiting opposing ball-carriers to just four yards per attempt. If the 49ers can consistently get pressure on Prescott, the stage may be set for San Francisco to pull an upset.

©DANIEL GLUSKOTER
A third-round draft pick out of Eastern Washington University, Cooper Kupp of the Rams had one of the best seasons by a receiver in NFL history in 2021, winning the first receiving Triple Crown since 2005, leading the NFL with 145 catches, 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns.

The Los Angeles Rams managed to win the NFC West despite their heartbreaking defeat to the 49ers when Seattle upset Arizona in Week 18. Rams head coach Sean McVay had been 45-0 when leading at halftime, but that streak ended Sunday after San Francisco’s epic comeback win. The Rams are going to lean on their star players, including Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Jalen Ramsey on defense, and strong-armed Matthew Stafford and MVP candidate Cooper Kupp on offense. Kupp won the receiving Triple Crown, leading the NFL with 145 catches, 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns, becoming only the fourth player to do so since the 1970 merger, and the first since Steve Smith turned the trick in 2005. Stafford led the Rams to the fifth best passing offense in the league, but his aggressiveness sometimes worked against him, and he’s thrown more interceptions (17) than any other QB in the playoffs.

McVay and Stafford will be familiar with their opponents, as they’ll face NFC West rival and fifth-seeded Arizona and QB Kyler Murray in his playoff debut. The two teams split their season series this year, with each team winning on the road. The Cardinals stumble into the playoffs having lost four of their last six games, allowing at least 22 points in each of those contests. For a team that is led by its stout defensive front, that is a worrisome trend. Arizona’s QBs (Murray and backup Colt McCoy) combined to lead the NFL in completion percentage in 2021 at 70.2%. Murray will have to be at his best to lead his forces past the potent Rams. A knee injury to star wideout DeAndre Hopkins in Week 14 certainly challenged the Cardinals offense, and he’s out for this matchup. On the plus side for Arizona, three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt is ahead of schedule in his comeback from a dislocated shoulder in October and is “trending toward” being on the field Monday night.

WILD CARD ROUND:

Tampa Bay (2) over Philadelphia (7)

San Francisco (6) over Dallas (3)

LA Rams (4) over Arizona (5)

DIVISIONAL ROUND:

San Francisco (6) over Green Bay (1)

LA Rams (4) over Tampa Bay (2)

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP:

San Francisco (6) over LA Rams (4)

SUPER BOWL:

Kansas City over San Francisco

Statistical research by Matt Vogel

About J.A. Schwartz

J.A. Schwartz is a reporter and columnist for the Martinez Tribune. He's also a licensed professional in the health care field when he's not opining on the world of sports and culture for the benefit of our readers.

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