Giants and Pads resume chase to pass Dodgers when it counts

BY J.A. SCHWARTZ

The National League West was home to the two best teams in the majors last year during the regular season. The San Francisco Giants set a franchise record with 107 wins, and won the division by a single game over the Dodgers. The Giants finally wrested the division title from the grasp of Los Angeles after the Dodgers had claimed it for eight consecutive seasons, and the two rivals figure to be at it again in 2022. San Diego is coming off a disappointing season that saw them collapse in the second half, finishing 79-83 despite significant roster improvements prior to the season, but the Padres are hoping that the West will be a three-team race this year. Both Arizona and Colorado are trying to build around young talent, but neither is likely to emerge as a threat to make the playoffs barring exceptional performances from several players on their roster.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers fell short in their quest to win a ninth consecutive NL West title, but it wasn’t because they underachieved. Their 106 wins tied a franchise record (set by the 2019 team), but it was still a game shy of their rivals in San Francisco. Los Angeles extracted a meaningful level of revenge, however, ousting the Giants in the NLDS to advance to the NLCS for the fifth time in six seasons. Dave Roberts and his Dodgers were eliminated by Atlanta in six games, but Roberts does not lack for confidence in the 2022. On March 24th, he promised a World Series title for his team. “We will win the World Series this year. Put it on the record,” Roberts said on the Dan Patrick show, a proclamation few managers are ever bold enough to make in a public forum. He has ample justification for his confidence.

The Dodgers feature the highest payroll in baseball at $278 million, as they did in 2021 at $266 million. Despite their seemingly limitless resources, they lost starter Max Scherzer, shortstop Corey Seager and closer Kenley Jansen as free agents, and traded outfielder A.J. Pollock to the White Sox for closer Craig Kimbrel. They also swept in to sign free agent Freddie Freeman, 32, from the World Champion Braves on a six-year, $162 million dollar contract. The 2021 lineup led the NL in runs and walks, and despite losing Seager, the addition of Freeman should keep the Dodgers at or near the top of most offensive categories. Every single lineup slot aside from Cody Bellinger in center hit at a level at least 23% better than the league average, and each had an OPS of at least 832. If Bellinger, the 2019 NL MVP, can find his form again at the plate, the Dodgers may well bludgeon opponents with their relentless attack.

Though they lost Scherzer to the Mets, the Dodgers kept franchise icon Clayton Kershaw on a one-year, $17 million pact. He’ll re-join the rotation headed by Walker Buehler and Julio Urias, who were a combined 36-7 last year with ERA’s under 3.00. Los Angeles pitchers led all of baseball in ERA and opponents batting average in 2021, and may well do so again this season. The Dodgers have another ace in their organization, but there has been little clarity on the status of Trevor Bauer on the eve of the season. Bauer, who was cleared of any criminal charges of sexual assault by the L.A. County District Attorney, has been placed on paid administrative leave by Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association through April 16th. Bauer last pitched for Los Angeles on June 28, 2021, but his possible return to the field of play remains an open question. The starters will depend upon Kimbrel (2.26 ERA, 24 saves) and Blake Treinen (1.99 ERA, 7 saves) to shut the door late in games to preserve Dodger leads. The Dodgers have been the best team in baseball since 2010 with 1068 wins, 24 more than the Yankees, and the odds makers in Las Vegas have tabbed them as the favorite to win this year’s championship. Roberts certainly sees things in a similar light, and will toil diligently to fulfill his bold promise.

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants received their own preview on these pages two weeks ago. The Giants battery of Logan Webb and catcher Joey Bart will both be getting their first opening day assignments. Webb had a breakout year in 2021 establishing himself as an elite pitcher in the second half of the season. Bart meanwhile has big shoes to fill following in the footsteps of Buster Posey, who retired after 12 years behind the plate that were highlighted by three World Series championships in addition to a batting title and MVP award in 2012. Other than the significant losses of Posey, Kris Bryant and Kevin Gausman,
San Francisco will field a lineup quite similar to the one that so dramatically overachieved last season under the stewardship of NL Manager of the Year Gabe Kapler.

San Diego Padres

The Padres have been the forgotten California National League franchise for the better part of 50 years, usually falling short of the standard established by the Dodgers and Giants. GM A.J. Preller has worked exhaustively to transform his franchise from an afterthought to a juggernaut, and seemed poised to establish a foothold in the N.L. West with a frenzy of bold trades and free agent signings prior to the 2021 season. Despite having the best record in baseball on May 30, 2021, San Diego faded badly, going 26-43 in the second half to finish below .500. Preller’s visions of grandeur were bankrolled by a $216 million payroll in 2021, the highest in franchise history, and resulted in the Padres joining their rivals in Los Angeles as the only two teams to pay the luxury tax under the collective bargaining agreement. Undeterred, Preller has once again positioned his team near the top of the payroll scale in 2022, and nothing less than a playoff berth will assuage his manic efforts to rebrand his team as winners.

San Diego hasn’t won an NL West title since 2006, and has made the playoffs only one other time (in 2020) since. The strength of this season’s edition of the Friars is in its starting rotation, which features Yu Darvish, 2018 AL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, and breakout star Joe Musgrove, who threw the franchise’s first no-hitter last year. Preller also dealt two prospects to acquire lefty Sean Manaea from the A’s on April 3rd. Manaea will be reunited with his manager in Oakland, new Padres skipper Bob Melvin, who replaces Jace Tingler in the San Diego dugout. Melvin should have Mike Clevinger, who is 44-23 with a 3.19 ERA in his career, back before the end of the month as he recovers from Tommy John surgery and knee pain, giving the Padres five reliable starters to send out every night. The bullpen may be a work in progress, as NL saves leader Mark Melancon left to become Arizona’s closer, leaving the job to some combination of righties Emilio Pagan, Dinelson Lamet and Robert Suarez. Suarez, who had 67 saves and an ERA under 2.00 for Hanshin of the Japanese league the past two seasons, might be the favorite to emerge as the best option to finish games.

The lineup revolves around stars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, who form a potent left side of the infield. Both players have signed long-term deals to keep them in Padres brown, with guaranteed contracts that will pay them each over $300 million. Unfortunately, San Diego will be without Tatis Jr. for the first 2-3 months of the season following surgery to repair a fracture in his left wrist, an injury he apparently suffered in a motorcycle accident in December and/or January. His absence will certainly impact a San Diego offense that was eighth in runs and 11th in HR’s in the National League last season. To address that area, Preller traded to acquire Luke Voit from the Yankees, hoping that the oft-injured but powerful slugger can recapture his form from 2020, when he led the AL with 22 homers. Top prospect C.J. Abrams, 21(9th on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects rank), may well make the Opening Day roster to help provide offensive punch. If the pitching staff can keep the Padres in the race until June, the Friar faithful believe that the healthy return of Tatis Jr., can propel them towards the franchise’s elusive first championship.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks finished 52-110 in 2021, tying the Baltimore Orioles for the worst record in the sport. They finished last in the NL in ERA, and 14th in runs scored, ample support for the franchise’s second worse season (the 2004 edition lost 111 games). There is little to suggest significant improvement for this year’s team, though the organization did retain star Ketel Marte, 28, with a five-year, $76 million extension that will keep him in Arizona through 2027. Madison Bumgarner, 32, is the only player on the team with a higher salary, based upon his five-year, $85 million deal that runs through 2024. The starters behind Bumgarner are all right handed, and Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Luke Weaver each had losing records with ERA’s north of 4.25 in 2021. General Manager Mike Hazen tried to plug holes in the pitching staff by importing veteran closers Mark Melancon and Ian Kennedy, both 37.

The lineup that manager Torey Lovullo will feature most nights should include Marte, outfielder Dalton Varsho and catcher Carson Kelly, each of who provided above average productivity at their positions last season. The introduction of the DH in the NL should allow young slugger Seth Beer to play consistently, giving Arizona another option to generate runs. The Diamondbacks finished 14th in the NL in steals with 43 in 2021, and they’ll need to knock the ball off the wall or over it to put crooked numbers on the scoreboard. There is hope down on the farm, as lefty hitting outfielders Corbin Carroll (#20) and Alek Thomas (#32) are both highly regarded by Baseball America’s Top 100 ranking of the best prospects. Thomas may well debut this summer, giving fans in the desert a reason to stay tuned into their team.

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies lost another homegrown star this offseason, as Trevor Story turned down efforts to keep him in Denver to pursue his career with Boston, a team with legitimate pennant hopes. A season after watching Nolan Arenado leave in a trade with the Cardinals, Colorado fans stood idly by as the organization let pitching ace Jon Gray sign with Texas as a free agent. Charlie Blackmon, now 35, is the longest tenured Rockie, and his $18 million contract makes it unlikely he’ll be following his ex-teammates out the door. Homegrown infield products Brendan Rogers and Ryan McMahon combined to hit 53 HR’s last season, and the team signed McMahon to a six-year, $70 million deal to prevent his eventual exodus. The top returning hitter is C.J. Cron, whose 28 HRs and 905 OPS led the team. He’ll be joined in the middle of the order by Kris Bryant, who signed a seven-year, $182 deal to play the outfield, and Randal Grichuk, acquired via trade with Toronto. Both Bryant and Grichuk should provide power to help push the Colorado attack towards the top of the league.

The pitching staff, as is usually the case, is a concern. Rockies pitchers finished 12th in the NL in ERA in 2021, and that was when Gray was in town. Without him, German Marquez, 27, is arguably the ace of a staff that includes lefty Kyle Freeland and righty Antonio Senzatela. Each of those three starters had an ERA better than league average, no mean feat in the altitude of Denver. Free agent Alex Colome will start the season as the closer, but how many leads he has to protect will be up to the maturation of the rotation and the work of his largely nondescript set-up crew. Zac Veen is the best prospect in the system, but the slugging outfielder is at least two seasons away from making an impact at the major league level. Colorado has finished fourth in the NL West in each of the past three seasons, and that may well be their ceiling again in 2022.

2022 MLB Predictions:

NL East: New York Mets
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
Wild Card 1: San Francisco Giants
Wild Card 2: Atlanta Braves
Wild Card 3: San Diego Padres

National League Pennant: Los Angeles Dodgers

AL East: Toronto Blue Jays
AL Central: Chicago White Sox
AL West: Houston Astros
Wild Card 1: New York Yankees
Wild Card 2: Minnesota Twins
Wild Card 3: Seattle Mariners

AL Pennant: Toronto Blue Jays

World Series Champions
Toronto Blue Jays