BY J.A. SCHWARTZ
Of the four major North American sports leagues, the NFL is the only one that does NOT have fully guaranteed contracts. Every contract signed by an MLB, NBA or NHL player is fully guaranteed the moment it is signed. Those players know they’ll receive the money their agreements stipulate, even if they are injured, released or cut (with the exception of some behavioral / criminal act clauses that can void contracts). An NFL player signing a new contract for $100 million over four years may have only a fraction of that value actually promised to him without exception. Why is that?
It has been the norm in the league since the 1960s for franchises to structure deals such that only a percentage of the total contract for a player was locked in. Consider the mega-deal signed by arguably the best player in the sport, Patrick Mahomes. In July of 2020, the Chiefs locked up their franchise player with a 10 year-$450 million agreement, keeping Mahomes in Kansas city for the next decade. However, the contract contained “only” $63 million in true guarantees, allowing the Chiefs to avoid having to put a huge chunk of that deal into escrow immediately. Mahomes contract is written in a way that allows him to earn the vast majority of his deal just by being on the roster on a certain date every year, but the Chiefs only have to put that money into an escrow account in small increments, spread out over many seasons that are yet to come. Mahomes will reap the benefits of his talents, and will be paid at a rate that will keep him among the top paid players in the sport. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have avoided potentially crippling revenue obligations upon agreeing to the deal with their star, a win-win for both sides.
In 2018, when Kirk Cousins became the highest paid quarterback in NFL history, his average annual salary was $28 million. In 2019, the highest paid player at that position was Russell Wilson, who pulled down $35 million in Seattle. The following year, Mahomes took the top spot, at $45 million a season, and held that level through 2021, but Aaron Rodgers’ deal with the Packers paid him $50 million a season, a figure that continues to be the largest at the position entering the 2023 season-for the moment. It would surprise nobody if the extensions being sought by Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson blow past that mark before the season kicks off this September. Of those three, only Jackson is a free agent right now, making a deeper investigation into his situation particularly salient.
The Ravens had hoped to sign Jackson to a long-term contract extension prior to his fifth year in the NFL. Baltimore had drafted Jackson with the last pick in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft, giving them control of his rights through his first five NFL seasons. The Baltimore front office had been negotiating with Jackson directly, since the star quarterback does not employ an agent, over the last several months in hopes of securing his services on a contract extension. Sources familiar with the situation claim that Jackson seeks a contract that will guarantee him at least as much money as the Browns gave Deshaun Watson ($230 million, ALL guaranteed). The Ravens decision makers were unwilling to make that commitment, which led to the team assigning the non-exclusive franchise tag to Jackson on March 7th.
The non-exclusive franchise tag would pay Jackson $32 million for the 2023 season, but it allows Jackson to negotiate with other teams to seek a better deal. If another team were to make a contract offer to Jackson, Baltimore would have the chance to match that offer, or, if they were unwilling to do so, would receive two first round picks from the team making the offer. The Ravens chose not to apply the exclusive franchise tag to Jackson, which would have guaranteed him $45 million for the upcoming season, and ensured that he couldn’t play for anyone but Baltimore. In essence, the franchise is gambling that the best offer Jackson might receive on the open market won’t contain as much guaranteed money as he seeks, and the team would be willing to match the offer to retain his services. It seems like a very risky way to treat the most important player in the organization.
Jackson missed the final five games of this past season with a knee injury, and was not fit to suit up for their playoff loss to the Bengals in January, but he did make a very pointed comment on his Instagram feed: “When you have something good, you don’t play with it. You don’t take chances losing it. You don’t neglect it. When you have something good, you pour into it. You appreciate it. Because when you take care of something good, that good thing takes care of you too.”
Prior to learning that he’d be assigned the non-exclusive franchise tag, Jackson had requested a trade from the Ravens, and went public with his displeasure with the team and the tenor of negotiations to that point. “As of March 2nd I have requested a trade from the Ravens organization for which the Ravens has not been interested in meeting my value…”
Is Jackson over-estimating what his value might be?
Baltimore drafted Lamar Jackson with the final pick in the first round of the 2018 NFL draft following his stellar career at Louisville, where he won the 2016 Heisman Trophy (beating out Watson, among others). He would become the Ravens starting quarterback midway through the 2018 season after incumbent Joe Flacco suffered a hip injury, and led the team to six wins in his seven starts, resulting in a playoff berth. He became the youngest quarterback in league history to start a playoff game, a 23-17 loss to the Chargers. In 2019, Jackson was the unanimous league MVP, only the second time in league history (Tom Brady, 2010) for a player to be so honored. Since his rookie season, he has started in at least 12 games every season, and has a career record of 45-16. He’s completed 63.7% of his passes, fired 101 touchdowns against 38 interceptions, and has a career passing rating of 96.7, placing him 13th all time (between Steve Young and Peyton Manning). He has also rushed for 4437 yards, a 6.1 yards per rush average, and scored an additional 24 TDs on the ground. By any measure of value, Jackson, who just turned 26 in January, is among the very best quarterbacks in the entire league.
Since the Ravens assigned him the non-exclusive franchise tag on March 7th, not a single NFL franchise has made Jackson an offer to play quarterback for their team. Zero.
In fact, several teams went out of their way to publicly announce that they would have no interest in trying to convince Jackson to play quarterback for their teams within hours of him being tagged by the Ravens. According to multiple reports, Atlanta, Carolina, Las Vegas, Miami and Washington all made some kind of public indication of their lack of interest in Jackson on the very day he was made available to the league.
That certainly sounds like teams are making a concerted effort to distance themselves from engaging in a process that might lead to a guaranteed contract for Jackson, which is the star quarterback’s aim. Multiple reports have suggested that Jackson seeks a contract that contains guaranteed money that eclipses the $230 million promised to Watson. When owners work collectively in matters of player compensation, it is termed collusion. The National Football League Players Association (NFLPA) has already filed a complaint alleging that the owners have colluded to make sure no other franchises enter into fully guaranteed contracts with players.
That claim was filed October 20, 2022, and used the contracts signed since the Watson deal by Derek Carr, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson as evidence of such collusion. None of the three deals were fully guaranteed, and the union is suggesting that the trend established first by Kirk Cousins and the Vikings (three years, $84 million fully guaranteed), but more recently by Watson, would become the baseline expectation for signing free agents going forward, especially quarterbacks. The NFLPA is suggesting that the owners got together to discuss the issue of guaranteed contracts, and resolved to collectively avoid offering them to anyone. It is incumbent upon the union to prove that the owners are actually guilty of such a practice, but the reactions of quarterback needy franchises in the immediate aftermath of the decision by the Ravens to assign the non-exclusive franchise tag to Jackson appears highly irregular at best, and downright suspicious at worst.
There are certainly teams in the league who are set at the quarterback position, eliminating at least half of the potential suitors for Jackson’s services. However, there are nearly a dozen franchises whose situation under center needs a solution, or, at the very least, an upgrade.
Pittsburgh and Atlanta both just drafted young quarterbacks (Kenny Pickett and Desmond Ridder, respectively), and might be excluded from the list, but both teams would improve dramatically were they to import Jackson to lead their offenses. Carolina might be excused from this list because they’ve traded to acquire the #1 overall pick in the 2023 draft, and intend to draft their franchise quarterback. However, prior to making the deal to move up to the top slot in the draft, GM Scott Fitterer felt that Jackson was “A great option-a really expensive option. But we’re more focused on more of the draft picks at this point.” Houston is in a similar position with the second overall pick in the draft. That leaves at least six other teams that could (and arguably, should) be engaging Jackson in contract negotiations, even though it would cost that team two first round picks on top of the value of the contract they’d be signing Jackson to.
New England Patriots:
Incumbent: Mac Jones
QBR in 2022: 84.8 (29th in NFL, among QBs with at least 100 attempts)
Last two years of first round picks: Mac Jones (2021), Cole Strange (2022)
“According to three league sources close to the situation, the Patriots are not expected to pursue signing or trading for Lamar Jackson.” (Boston Sports Journal’s Greg Bedard).
New York Jets:
Incumbent: Zach Wilson
QBR in 2022: 72.8 (46th in NFL)
Last two years of first round picks: Zach Wilson, Alijah Vera-Tucker (2021), Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, Jermaine Johnson (2022)
“First of all, Lamar Jackson is a fantastic player, but where we stand is it would be disingenuous and negotiating in bad faith if we went down that path.” (Jets GM Joe Douglas, answering a question about Jackson and citing his team’s ongoing efforts to trade for Aaron Rodgers, 39, at the likely cost of two second round picks and $50 million annual salaries for the next two seasons).
Washington Commanders:
Incumbent: Jacoby Brissett
QBR in 2022: 88.9 (22nd in NFL)
Last two years of first round picks: Jamin Davis (2021), Jahan Dotson (2022)
Coach Ron Rivera: We never did,” when asked if they looked into Jackson. “We didn’t feel it suited what we wanted to do. I know he’s a tremendous talent. I know he’s a player that can impact your team. I just didn’t think … that was the direction for us as a team.”
Indianapolis Colts:
Incumbent: Nick Foles, Gardner Minshew
QBR in 2022: Unqualiified
Last two years of first round picks: Kwity Paye (2021), no pick in 2022
Owner Jim Irsay: “As an owner I do not believe in fully guaranteed contracts…When you have a rookie QB, it gives you the opportunity to build a franchise for the first 3 or 4 years.”
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Incumbent: Baker Mayfield
QBR in 2022: 79 (37th in NFL)
Last two years of first round picks: Jon Tryon-Shoyinka (2021), no pick in 2022
Head Coach Todd Bowles: “We know it’s time for us to get under the cap, and he makes a lot of money.”
Atlanta Falcons:
Incumbent: Taylor Heinicke/Desmond Ridder
QBR in 2022: Heinicke 89.6 (21st in NFL) / Ridder 86.4 (26tth in NFL)
Last two years of first round picks: Kyle Pitts (2021), Drake London (2022)
Falcons owner Arthur Blank: “Looking at it objectively, I’d say there’s some concern over how long can he play his style of game. Hopefully, a long time … but he’s missed 5, 6 games each of the last two years. Each game counts a lot in our business.”
It will be a fascinating process if and when Jackson is offered a contract by a club who seeks to benefit from his enormous talent at the sport’s most important position. Based on the behavior of the teams who would seem to have the greatest need in that area, Jackson-and the NFLPA who seeks to protect the interests of the players-will be very disappointed. The outcome of his quest is the biggest story of the NFL offseason, and may have far-reaching implications that could impact every contract offered by NFL teams going forward. Lamar Jackson may end up being the player who finally brings the NFL up to par with the other professional sports leagues in terms of guaranteeing player salaries-unless the owners are truly (and illegally) united in their efforts to prevent that from happening.
