49ers hope third Super Bowl trip with Shanahan will be a charm

BY J.A. SCHWARTZ

The 49ers franchise has won five Super Bowls, with only Pittsburgh and New England eclipsing that mark, having won six each to set the standard of excellence that all other teams aspire to. They’ve appeared in the championship game twice in the past five seasons, losing both times to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, the current NFL champions (Kansas City has won back-to-back titles, the first NFL team to do so since Tom Brady led the Patriots to two straight Super Bowl wins in 2003-2004). In fact, after winning the Super Bowl in each of their first five appearances, San Francisco has now lost three straight-after the 2023 season, after the 2019 season (also to the Chiefs) and after the 2012 season to Baltimore.

The 49ers last Super Bowl win came 30 years ago, when Steve Young led the club to a 49-26 destruction of San Diego in Super Bowl XXIX. The club won five of the first 29 titles, but none since 1994. The standard of excellence established by franchise icons and NFL Hall of Famers Bill Walsh, Joe Montana, Jerry Rice, Ronnie Lott and Steve Young is nearly impossible to surpass, but San Francisco GM John Lynch will again be tasked with ending that long title drought as the 2024 season draws near.

Lynch took over the reigns of the storied franchise in 2017, and his teams have gone 64-51 under his guidance, earning playoff berths in four of his seven seasons, and amassing an 8-4 record during those postseason runs, two of which ended in Super Bowl losses to Kansas City. Over the past five seasons, the 54 wins by his franchise ranks fifth in the league, behind only the Chiefs, Bills, Packers and Ravens. Current head coach Kyle Shanahan has been on the job every year under Lynch, and his last two seasons may have seen the best collection of talent he’s had to work with since taking over in 2017. San Francisco has 25 wins over those two seasons, the most in the NFL (tied with Philadelphia and Kansas City), and have outscored their opponents by a staggering 366 points, easily the best total in football (Dallas is second at +319).

While Shanahan came to San Francisco as an offensive savant, his last two 49ers teams have been defensive stalwarts, allowing the fewest points in the league with 575, nearly 20 clear of the second best defensive unit in Baltimore. Shanahan has certainly been successful in shaping his club to achieve at the highest levels, and Lynch has provided him with the talent to do so. Over the past two seasons, Lynch has acquired impact players Christian McCaffrey and Chase Young to help bolster Shanahan’s roster, and it stands to reason that he’ll be willing to be aggressive again should the club find itself in need of reinforcements as the trade deadline rolls around in early November of 2024.

The salary cap era began in 1994, and was designed to make it difficult for franchises to dominate the league by retaining their best players indefinitely. The cap was supposed to level the playing field, limiting the maximum each club could spend to pay their players. Has it worked? In the 30 seasons since the cap was introduced, New England (6), Denver (3) and Kansas City (3) have won twelve of those titles, though 15 different franchises have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy over the span.

This year, San Francisco has allocated over $301 million in contracts according to Spotrac, second only to Cleveland ($312 million) coming into the 2024 season. The front office is facing a decision about Brandon Aiyuk, the talented wideout who is eligible for an extension entering 2024, the final season of his rookie contract. If past performance is any indication, Aiyuk will be catching passes from Brock Purdy this season, and beyond.

San Francisco has been aggressive in paying their elite players to keep them in town, a trend that John Lynch would like to see continue.
Before the 2020 season, Lynch signed George Kittle for five years and $75 million.
Before the 2021 season, the organization signed Trent Williams to a six year, $138 million pact, and retained defensive superstar Fred Warner for five years and $95 million.
Before the 2022 season, Deebo Samuel inked a three year, $71 million contract.
Before the 2023 season, pass rushing menace Nick Bosa agreed to a five year, $170 million deal.
Earlier this offseason, the versatile McCaffrey was locked up with a two year, $38 million extension.

It would stand to reason that Lynch and Shanahan have designs on keeping Aiyuk in the fold, though the process leading to that accord has been fraught with rumors and posturing. “They told me that they didn’t think we’re on the same page,” Aiyuk said of contract talks earlier this year, noting that “they didn’t believe we were going to (come to an agreement), and that was about it at the time.”

Lynch has been steadfast in his stance that Aiyuk won’t be traded, and that he will be a big part of the team’s future. “I’ve communicated on many occasions: Our wish is that he’s here and part of the Niners for the rest of his career,” Lynch said in April. “I can say we’re having good talks, and I’m going to leave it at that.” Aiyuk went out of his way to praise the organization, saying “I feel like right now I’m in the right place, in the right spot, with the right quarterback..but we’re not on the right terms.” Aiyuk was scheduled to meet with San Francisco executives in early July to hammer out an agreement. “We’ll see how it goes,” Aiyuk said.

Apparently, the most recent vibes coming from Aiyuk’s camp suggest that there may be an irreparable rift between the player (and his agent) and the San Francisco leadership. On July 16th, a mere days prior to the opening of 49ers training camp, a league source reported that Aiyuk had formally requested a trade from the team, citing a lack of progress in contract extension talks. Despite this proclamation, Aiyuk did report to 49ers training camp, though he is not practicing with the team.

On a team built around star players making significant money, the rise in the performance of San Francisco’s offense coincides with a player that every other team passed on in the 2022 NFL draft. Brock Purdy was quite literally the last player chosen in that draft, the 262nd overall choice, after a solid career as an Iowa State Cyclone. The eight quarterbacks chosen before him: Kenny Pickett (20th), Desmond Ridder (74th), Malik Willis (86th) Matt Corral (94th), Bailey Zappe (137th), Sam Howell (144th), Chris Oladokun (241st), and Skylar Thompson (247th). None of that group are projected to be starters in 2024, and it is safe to say that the teams who selected those signal callers would be happy to exchange their choice for Purdy.

When Purdy was drafted, he signed a four year, $3.7 million contract that runs through 2025. In 2024, Purdy will earn a shade more than $1 million, which is less than 55 of his San Francisco teammates, including Brandon Parker, Kalia Davis and Nick Zakelj. Perhaps the most striking note about Purdy’s contract is that his $1,004,252 salary cap hit ranks 75th among quarterbacks. There are literally 74 other signal callers that will cash checks this season that will exceed Purdy’s earnings, including household names like Jake Haener, Kyle Trask and even teammate Brandon Allen, who is the third stringer behind Purdy and veteran backup Josh Dobbs.

Purdy’s contract makes him the single most valuable player in the NFL, and everyone in San Francisco’s front office knows it. Because the team doesn’t have to allot a significant amount of cap space to their QB position, they can allocate those funds in other areas (offensive line, tight end, running back, wide receiver, linebacker) in a way other organizations can only dream of. Fourteen NFL quarterbacks will earn $40 million this season, and at least 20 will earn $10 million for the upcoming season.

None of them, not even reigning Super Bowl MVP and three time Super Bowl champion Mahomes, arguably the gold standard of quarterback play in the league, have outplayed Purdy since he took over as the starting quarterback of the 49ers in 2022. Purdy has started 21 games since taking over as the emergency starter following injuries to starters Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo in December of 2022. The 49ers are 17-4 in those starts, with Purdy throwing 44 touchdowns against only 15 interceptions, and completing 68.7% of his passes.

In 2023, starting 16 games, he led the entire NFL in passer rating at 113 (Dak Prescott was second at 105.9), yards per completion at 13.9, and adjusted net yards per passing attempt at a staggering 9.01, miles ahead of Tua Tagovailoa at 7.48. For context of how dominant Purdy’s performance in 2023 was, the career leader in that metric is Patrick Mahomes at 7.76. Only four quarterbacks in NFL history have achieved such a high level of passing productivity, led by Peyton Manning’s 9.78 for the 2004 Colts.

To suggest that Purdy is the only engine of the San Francisco attack would be disingenuous considering that the team also employs McCaffrey. Since being acquired in 2022 (ironically, just six weeks before Purdy would make his first start), McCaffrey has been weaponized by Shanahan into the most lethal scorer in the NFL. In his first full season in San Francisco, McCaffrey touched the ball 339 times, leading to 2023 total yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns – leading the league in both categories.

Shanahan has indicated that the team will look to scale back McCaffrey’s workload in 2024, saying “we have to protect Christian from himself. He doesn’t ever like to come out no matter what the situation is.” In referencing the 49ers rushing attack, Shanahan noted “if he’s just taking the wear and tear with 20 carries…every game – you’d like to take some of that off of him and give it to other guys also.” Both Purdy and McCaffrey are in the prime of their careers, and the continued excellence of both players will be tantamount to any hope 49er fans harbor for a championship season.

Purdy’s transcendent play while earning such a meager salary at the most important position in the sport represents a confluence of circumstances that inject a sense of urgency into the 2024 season for the organization. The Niners have a group of impact players in their prime who have never won a championship, and they will be led into the 2024 NFL season by a coach who has been to the Super Bowl three different times – twice as head coach of the 49ers and once as Offensive Coordinator of the Falcons – and lost each time. He wasn’t making all the decisions for Atlanta as they coughed up a record 25 point Super Bowl lead to Tom Brady and the Patriots, but he was the man in charge when his 49ers lost Super Bowl LIV and Super Bowl LVIII to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

In each of the three title game defeats, his team led by at least 10 points, and were outscored in the fourth quarter and overtime of those three Super Bowl losses by a total score of 58-12. Clearly, when the game is on the line, Shanahan’s team could not execute at a level that would have led them to a Lombardi Trophy. “I don’t care how you lose when you lose Super Bowls, especially ones you think you can pull off. It hurts,” Shanahan lamented after his most recent defeat this past February. He gave respect to his foes, noting, “This is my second Super Bowl as a head coach, but I think when you go against guys like Tom Brady and Pat Mahomes, you better never feel comfortable with the lead.”

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the 49ers third ranked defense in the league returns with mostly the same cast of characters, but with some tweaking around the edges, starting at the top.

Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks was rather unceremoniously shown the door after reaching the Super Bowl in his first season as San Francisco’s DC in spite of overseeing a unit that allowed both less yards per game and nearly a point and a half less per game then the previous year under defensive guru DeMeco Ryans while increasing their takeaways.

New DC Nick Sorensen inherits a talent laden roster featuring 2022 Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa, free from the distraction of contract renegotiations that forced him to miss all of last seasons exhibition games. First team All-Pro Warner is consistently one of the best linebackers in the game. All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga went down with a torn ACL in Week 11 and missed the 49ers Super Bowl run but is expected to be ready in time for San Francisco’s season opener against Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets.

The versatile Dre Greenlaw joins Warner in anchoring one of the best inside linebacking corps in the league. Chase Young, Arik Armstead and Clelin Ferrell have departed via free agency, replaced by defensive tackle Maliek Collins and edge rusher Leonard Floyd and his 39.5 sacks over the past four seasons, along with Yetur Gross-Matos and linebacker De’Vondre Campbell.

Shanahan’s offense has rolled up 941 points in the past two seasons, 75% of which have come with Purdy and McCaffrey in the lineup together. In fact, when he’s had Purdy, McCaffrey and Samuel on the field to finish the game, the team is 19-0. He should have those weapons available to him in 2024, and they will enter the season as the favorites to return to the Super Bowl after this upcoming season, sharing the best championship odds with Kansas City according to Las Vegas sports books.

Shanahan has made the playoffs in four of his seven seasons at the helm of the team, going 8-4 in the postseason and winning the NFC Championship twice. Shanahan, Lynch, Purdy and the entire roster know that any outcome other than the franchise’s sixth Super Bowl title will represent a golden opportunity lost. Their quarterback, once known as Mr. Irrelevant, will have more to say about their success in 2024 than any other player on their roster. His meager wages have paved the way for the organization and John Lynch to surround him with the teammates to finally break the 30 year drought San Francisco fans have suffered as they anticipate their beloved 49ers finally holding the Lombardi trophy aloft once again in February.