MLB playoffs begin with no clear favorite after historic season

BY J.A. SCHWARTZ

As the days grow shorter and the leaves begin to turn in parts of the country, the crispness in the air suggests that the baseball postseason is about to commence. Last year’s champion, the Texas Rangers, led by manager Bruce Bochy, will not have the opportunity to defend their title. Bochy has led teams to four different World Series championships (with San Francisco in 2010, 2012 and 2014, and with Texas last season), but has failed to bring his club back to the playoffs in each of the seasons following their victory. The Rangers absence from the playoffs will ensure that baseball won’t have a repeat champion, which last occurred in 2000, when the Yankees won for the third straight season.

The 2024 playoffs figure to be filled with intrigue, given that there were no 100 win teams for the first time since the 2014 season. There is no clear favorite to win the title, and each team who has qualified for the postseason has flaws that might prove fatal in the crucible of October. The best young stars in the game will be on display, including MVP candidates Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson and Tarik Skull in the American League, and Jackson Chourio and Jackson Merrill in the National League. The biggest stars in the game, including Gerrit Cole, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Yordan Alvarez, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez will be on display, and Shohei Ohtani, author of the first 50HR / 50SB season in the history of the sport, will make his postseason debut.

American League

AL East Champion-New York Yankees (#1 seed)

The Yankees finished the 2023 season fourth in the AL East, 19 games back of the Baltimore Orioles. Their 82 wins were the fewest the franchise had earned in a full season since 1992, which was also the last season they failed to finish with a winning record. Their mark of 32 consecutive seasons finishing over .500 is the second longest in history, trailing only the 1926-1964 Yankees, who did so in 39 straight seasons. GM Brian Cashman traded for Juan Soto, signed Marcus Stroman as a free agent to provide an upgrade to the rotation, and traded to import Jazz Chisholm Jr. in late July, filling needs that helped lead his club to the AL East crown and the top seed in the American League. The duo of Judge and Soto were arguably the two best hitters in the game in 2024, combining for 99 HRs and 250 RBIs and striking fear into opposing pitchers all season. They finished 2024 as the only teammates to have an offensive rating at least 77% better than the league since Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig, putting them in historically great company.

Unfortunately for the Yankees, few other members of their lineup had a similar effect on their foes given that only Austin Wells, Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton were above average offensively among their regulars who appeared in at least 60 games for the club. Despite the top-heavy approach, the Yankees still led the AL in runs, HRs, walks and on base percentage. Their pitching was led by rookie breakout star Luis Gil (15-7, 3.50 ERA) and a resurgent Carlos Rodon, who atoned for a horrific first year in New York by going 16-9 with a 3.96 ERA and leading the club in strikeouts with 195. Ace Gerrit Cole was excellent upon his return from injury, going 8-5 with a 3.41 ERA, and will likely get the ball for the first game of the playoffs for New York. With Judge and Soto in the lineup, the Yankees should have enough firepower to stay with any team they face.

AL Central Champion-Cleveland Guardians (#2 seed)

The Guardians claimed the AL Central title in 2024, led by first-year manager Stephen Vogt, who replaced Terry Francona at the helm following Francona’s retirement after the 2023 season. Despite losing ace Shane Bieber after only two starts, Vogt has leveraged his strong bullpen to support an otherwise mediocre pitching staff. Tanner Bibee, who was 12-8 with a 3.47 ERA, was their only starter to have an ERA under 3.80 among those who made at least 10 starts for the club in 2024. Without a true ace to lean on, Vogt entrusted games to his relievers, a group that led the majors with a 2.57 ERA. Closer Emmanuel Clase had 47 saves and a 0.61 ERA, and allowed only two homers and 10 walks in his 74.1 innings. Clase wasn’t the only member of the bullpen to dominate in 2024. Rookie Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, Nick Sandlin and Eli Morgan combined to go 25-5 with a 2.16 ERA, and were the primary reason that Cleveland held off Kansas City to win the division.

The Guardians offense was below the league average, though Jose Ramirez posted another excellent season, achieving a 39 HR, 41 SB campaign while playing stellar defense at third. Farm products Steven Kwan and Jhonkensy Noel were key contributors to the offense, and Josh Naylor established new career highs with 31 HR and 108 RBI. If Vogt and his Guardians are to win the franchise’s first World Series since 1948, it will likely be on the back of Ramirez and his lights-out closer Clase.

AL West Champion-Houston Astros (#3 seed)

The Astros won the AL West for the fourth straight season, and the seventh time in the past eight seasons under first-year manager Joe Espada. Given that the franchise has advanced at least as far as the ALCS for seven consecutive seasons, anything but a trip to the World Series will be considered a lost season for Espada’s Astros. Should they earn their way to the ALCS this season, they would tie Atlanta’s run of eight straight NLCS berths (1991-1999) for the all-time record of consecutive appearances in championship series. The Astros, who led the AL with a .262 average, are led by familiar faces on offense: Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve, each of whom was at least 20% better than league average at the plate.

The pitching staff received a trade deadline boost from Yusei Kikuchi, acquired from Toronto, who went 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA to help keep Houston atop the division. He’ll join ace Framber Valdez (15-7, 2.91) and system product Hunter Brown (11-9, 3.49) to form a strong trio of starters for the club. The bullpen was led by free agent signee Josh Hader, who went 8-8 with 34 saves and a 3.80 ERA in his first year of a five-year, $95 million contract. Houston always plans for a deep October run, and the thought of having Hader on the hill at the end of games was enough to push GM Dana Brown to invest heavily in the lefty, who has thrown 19.2 postseason innings with a 1.37 ERA with only four walks and 33 strikeouts. If Hader can replicate that dominance for Houston, the Astros may well extend their remarkable run of postseason success.

American League Wild Card #1: Baltimore Orioles (#4 seed)

Baltimore turned the corner in their long rebuilding process last season, winning the AL East for the first time since 2014. They couldn’t repeat as division champs, but their efforts clinched the top wild card spot in the AL, representing the first time the team has made the playoffs in consecutive seasons since the 1996-1997 Orioles. Manager Brandon Hyde has an emerging star at short in 23-year-old Gunnar Henderson, whose .281/.364/.529 line with 37 HR and 92 RBIs paced a balanced offense that was second in the AL in runs and HRs, behind only division rival New York. With Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle returning late in the season from the injured list, the Orioles will become the only team in the postseason to field a lineup of above average hitters at every position. Their deep farm system has already produced young, productive bats in Adley Rutschman, Henderson, Westburg, and Rookie Of the Year front-runner Colton Cowser, and there are more on the way.

The Baltimore player development pipeline allowed General Manager Mike Elias to trade some of his young assets to acquire Corbin Burnes from Milwaukee this offseason. Burnes has been the workhorse ace the club lacked, making 33 starts, and finishing 15-9, 2.92 in his first season with the team. Hyde will have to choose between veteran Zach Eflin (10-9, 3.59), Dean Kremer (8-10, 4.10) or Albert Suarez (9-7, 3.70) to round out the rotation for the postseason. Baltimore’s team ERA of 3.94 was eighth in the AL, but their bullpen mark was 4.22, and may prove to be an area of concern late in games. Seranthony Dominguez (3.97 ERA and 10 saves with the club) was the default closer over the final two months of the season following the release of veteran Craig Kimbrel. The young O’s were swept out of the playoffs by Texas in 2023 after a 101 win season, a bitter end to a breakthrough campaign. If Hyde wants to bring Baltimore its first World Series championship in over 40 years, he’ll have to hope his young stars have learned from that painful experience, and will rise to the challenge and intensity of playoff baseball in 2024.

American League Wild Card #2: Kansas City Royals (#5 seed)

The 2024 Royals will return to the postseason for the first time since 2015, when the franchise won its second World Series title. Led by second year manager Matt Quatraro and GM J.J. Picollo, Kansas City went from being a last place club with 106 losses a year ago, to a playoff team that was third in the AL in run differential. The club has largely the same lineup as it did a year ago, headlined by AL MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr., who Picollo signed to a seven-year, $148 million extension before the season started. Witt, who hit .332/.389/.588 with 32 HR, 109 RBIs and 31 steals while playing Gold Glove caliber defense at shortstop, is the engine that drives the Royals offense. Kansas City was sixth in the AL in runs scored despite having only one other hitter in the lineup-catcher Salvador Perez- who was at least 15% better than league average at the plate.

The biggest change from 2023 to 2024 for Kansas City came from their starting rotation, which was bolstered by offseason free agent signings Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo. Both Wacha and Lugo left San Diego to come to the midwest, and combined to go 29-17 with an ERA of 3.10 over 373 innings. They joined holdovers Cole Ragans and Brady Singer to form a rotation that provided consistently effective starts, and the starting staff as a whole had an ERA of 3.55 on the season, second only to Seattle in the majors. The bullpen, on the other hand, ranked in the bottom third of baseball, allowing 1.33 baserunners per inning and lacking a ninth inning stopper to close out games. Picollo added Lucas Erceg at the deadline in a trade with Oakland to bolster that area of the club, and he’s thrown 25 innings and recorded 11 saves for the Royals, with an encouraging 31 to 3 strikeout to walk ratio. Quatraro will likely depend upon Erceg to get big outs late in games, and if the Royals pen can support their excellent starters and superstar shortstop, a return to the Fall Classic would not be a surprise.

American League Wild Card #3: Detroit Tigers (#6 seed)

At the trade deadline, Detroit President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris was a seller. His club was 52-57, and 14 games behind Cleveland in the AL Central, and behind seven other AL teams in the Wild Card race. He agreed to trade pending free agents Jack Flaherty (to the Dodgers) and Mark Canha (to the Giants), looking ahead to 2025. However, Manager A.J. Hinch, likely AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal and the rest of the young Tigers had other plans. Skubal has been brilliant, winning the American League pitching triple crown by leading the AL in wins with 18, ERA at 2.39, and strikeouts with 228. No other Tiger starter had a winning record among those still with the team who had made at least 10 starts for the club, but Hinch has expertly deployed a deep and versatile bullpen to help suppress opposing offenses, and his hurlers were second in the AL with a 3.61 ERA. Closer Jason Foley had 25 saves and a 3.15 ERA, but the most valuable member of the relief corps was lefty Tyler Holton, who went 7-2 with a 2.19 ERA over 94.1 innings (including nine starts).

The offense was driven primarily by 23-year-old Riley Greene, who hit .262/.348/.479 with a club leading 24 HRs and 74 RBIs, and 26-year-old Kerry Carpenter, who missed nearly half the season with a stress fracture in his back, but still hit .284/.345/.587 with 18 HRs and 57 RBIs. The Detroit offense has received a second half boost from system products Spencer Torkelson, Colt Keith and Parker Meadows, but their attack hit the fewest HRs and scored the fewest runs of any team to make the postseason. With Hinch pulling all the right levers in the dugout, his Tigers have the best record in the American League (34-20) since the July 30th trade deadline, and they’ll need to continue to play that level of baseball to advance in the 2024 postseason.

Predictions:

Royals over the Orioles

Astros over the Tigers

Yankees over the Royals

Guardians over the Astros

Yankees over the Guardians

AL Champion: New York Yankees

National League playoff preview and World Series predictions here.