Phils, Pads hoping to survive Dodger juggernaut in loaded NL field

BY J.A. SCHWARTZ

Following up yesterday’s AL Preview, here’s our evaluation of the National League’s postseason picture:

National League West Champions:-Los Angeles Dodgers #1 seed

Los Angeles clinched their third straight NL West title, assuring them a twelfth consecutive postseason berth, leading the majors in wins with 98 that will secure home field advantage through the postseason. To bolster their chances in the playoffs, the Dodgers invested heavily in the free agent market this past offseason, committing $1.18 billion to upgrade their roster. That figure is the highest offseason total in the history of baseball, and it was largely directed at three elite players: a 10-year, $700 million dollar deal for Shohei Ohtani, a 12-year, $325 million dollar deal for Yoshinobu Yamamoto (the largest contract ever awarded a pitcher), and a five-year, $136 million extension for Tyler Glasnow, acquired in a trade with Tampa. Ohtani, who didn’t pitch at all in the regular season as he recovers from elbow surgery, became the first player to ever record a 50 HR, 50 SB season, finishing just shy of the NL triple crown at .310/.390/.646 with 54 HR, 130 RBIs and 59 SB, and is the presumtive NL MVP. The trio of Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts formed the core of an offense that led the NL in HR and was second only to Arizona in runs scored. Freeman injured his ankle during the last week of the season, and may not be fully healthy for the playoffs even after the extended rest they earned with a first-round bye. Despite mixing and matching with various players at different positions, Los Angeles led the NL in defensive efficiency, which supported a pitching staff that was decimated by injuries all season, leading to a 3.90 ERA that was barely better than the league average. Only two Dodger starters made at least 20 starts for the club, and one of them, Glasnow, has already been ruled out of the playoffs due to an elbow injury. Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00) was arguably their best hurler, and he will be expected to lead the rotation in the postseason, likely followed by midseason trade import Jack Flaherty, who went 6-2 with a 3.58 ERA for the club after arriving from Detroit. If Dave Roberts is to guide this team back to the World Series, he’ll be leaning heavily on his star hitters, and hoping that he’s got enough quality pitching to support their efforts, with or without Ohtani’s contributions from the mound. It will be Ohtani’s postseason debut after six fruitless seasons with the Angels, and the most popular player in the sport will endeavor to improve upon his remarkable regular season achievements with a few stirring playoff moments.

National League East Champions:-Philadelphia Phillies #2 seed

The Phillies were the NL East champions for the first time since 2011, despite the fact that they’ve been to the National League Championship Series in each of the past two seasons. GM Dave Dombrowski has taken four franchises (Marlins, Tigers, Red Sox and Phillies) to the World Series, winning the title in 1997 with Florida and in 2018 with Boston. Philadelphia had the second best record in baseball in 2024, with a balanced squad that scored the third most runs in the NL, and the fourth best ERA in the Senior Circuit. The offense is led by lefty sluggers Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, who amassed 68 HRs and 191 RBIs together in 2024. All but two regulars in their lineup were above the league average for offense, providing a relentless attack on opposing pitchers. Their own pitching rotation may well be the best of any playoff team, featuring four starters who have thrown at least 150 IP, all with an ERA below 3.60. Ace Zack Wheeler signed a three-year, $126 million extension that kicks in next season, and he rewarded his employer’s faith by going 16-7 with a 2.57 ERA in 2024. Aaron Nola, Christopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez are all capable of dominating the games Wheeler doesn’t start, and the trio went a combined 37-25 in 2024. Their deep bullpen was anchored by Jeff Hoffman, whose 66.1 IP and 2.17 ERA with a 12.1 k/9 rate provided dominance despite only tallying 10 saves on the season. The Phillies can win games in a myriad of different ways, and they will endeavor to bring a championship to their rabid fan base for the first time since 2008.

National League Central Champions:-Milwaukee Brewers #3 seed

The Milwaukee Brewers might be the best kept secret in the major leagues. They’ve made the playoffs in six of the past seven seasons, winning the NL Central in 2024 for the second straight year. They were second in the NL in run differential, outscoring their opponents by 136 runs, behind only Los Angeles. They scored the fourth most runs in the NL, had the second best ERA in the league, and featured the best fielding team in the league by multiple metrics. In his first season as Brewers manager, Pat Murphy has taken a team largely devoid of marquee names and molded them into the most well-rounded team in the postseason. Despite losing arguably their best hitter, Christian Yelich (.315/.406/.504) to back surgery after 73 games, the team relied upon young star Jackson Chourio, who turned 20 just before Opening Day. Chourio, became the youngest player in baseball history to achieve a 20 HR, 20 SB season, and hit .303/.358/.525 since June 1st. Willy Adames has been the most productive member of the lineup, leading the Brewers with 32 HRs and driving in 112, both career highs. The rotation lost its ace when Milwaukee traded free-agent-to-be Corbin Burnes to Baltimore before the season but they’ve still managed to allow fewer runs than any team outside Atlanta in the NL. Tobias Meyers, 25, is arguably their best starter, going 9-6 with a 3.00 ERA, with veteran Freddy Peralta leading the team in innings and strikeouts (173.2 and 200, respectively). Closer Devin Williams missed the first four months of the season recovering from stress fractures in his spine, but he’s going to be trusted to finish games for the Brewers. In his 21.2 innings since returning, he’s collected 14 saves and struck out 38 with a 1.25 ERA. Murphy might not have the star power or the household names, but his club played well all year and are capable of making a deep playoff run behind Chourio, its new franchise icon.

National League Wild Card #1: San Diego Padres #4 seed

General Manager A.J. Preller started the offseason knowing that he had to cut payroll, and let Josh Hader, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and 2023 NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell depart via free agency. The Padres best player, Juan Soto, was dealt to the Yankees for a package of young, inexpensive talent headlined by emerging starter Michael King and prospect Drew Thorpe. Preller then pivoted, trading Thorpe and two prospects to the White Sox for Dylan Cease just as the season began, and adding two-time batting champion Luis Arraez from the Marlins for another cluster of farm system products a month later. Each of the new additions have contributed to the Padres return to the playoffs after missing them entirely last season, but perhaps their most important player was a prospect they didn’t trade-Jackson Merrill. Despite having being drafted as a shortstop and never having played center field, Merrill made the Opening Day roster and, at 21, has staked a claim to that job for the foreseeable future. His .292/.326/.500 line with 24 HR and 90 RBIs had him neck-and-neck with Paul Skenes in the NL Rookie of the Year race. The balanced Padre attack was sixth in the NL in runs scored, but led the majors in batting average at .263, and had the lowest strikeout rate in the game as well. Arraez embodied the team ethic admirably, winning his third straight batting title (.314) while going 141 ABs without a strikeout (the longest streak in 20 years) in the second half. Arraez became the first player to win three straight batting titles while playing for three different teams. Acquired in the Soto transaction, King was arguably the Padres best starter, going 13-9, 2.95, but will be followed capably by Cease (14-11, 3.47), who authored just the second no-hitter in franchise history in July. Robert Suarez is the San Diego closer, notching 36 saves and posting a 2.77 ERA. The Padres have never won a World Series, but this year’s team might just have the right mix of youth, talent and depth to rectify that anomaly and bring San Diego its first championship in any sport in 2024.

National League Wild Card #2: Atlanta Braves #5 seed

Atlanta was the final team to clinch a postseason berth, winning the last game of the season to earn a playoff spot for the seventh consecutive season. Manager Brian Snitker maneuvered his roster deftly despite devastating injuries to the best players on his club. 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. missed all but 49 games this season, and 20 game winner and NL strikeout champion from 2023 Spencer Strider made just two starts before his elbow gave out, requiring season-ending surgery. Austin Riley fractured his wrist and missed the final two months of the season, but the Braves rallied behind an excellent pitching staff and will play October baseball with the roster they have left. Marcell Ozuna his 39 HR and drove in 100 runs, combining with Matt Olson (29 HR, 98 RBIs) in the middle of the Atlanta attack to offset the loss of Acuna Jr. and Riley. The Braves hit more HR than all but two NL teams, but scored more runs than only the Tigers among playoff clubs. Atlanta’s success had more to do with its pitching than any other factor, which was led by likely NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale, who won the NL pitching triple crown, leading the league with 18 wins, a 2.38 ERA and 225 strikeouts. Sale was supported by teammates Max Fried (11-10, 3.25), Reynaldo Lopez (8-5, 2.00), and rookie Spencer Schwellenbach (8-7, 3.47) giving the team a chance to win most every night. Their deep bullpen was led by fireman Raisel Iglesias (6-2, 1.72, 33 saves). Snitker and his Braves may not have all the firepower that their recent playoff rosters featured, but their pitching staff makes them as dangerous as any team in the postseason.

National League Wild Card #3: New York Mets #6 seed

On June 1st, the Mets were 24-34, 16 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. Since that date, first year manager Carlos Mendoza has guided his club to the best record in the sport, going 65-39 to claim a postseason berth, the franchise’s second in the past three seasons. Owner Steve Cohen’s most valuable asset is Francisco Lindor, who has helped carry the Mets in the second half, hitting .305/.370/.568 with 16 HRs while playing excellent defense at shortstop. The offense scored the fifth most runs in the NL, and have received unexpectedly strong contributions from system product Mark Vientos (844 OPS, 27 HRs) and Jose Iglesias (.342/.387/.456), a minor league contract signee who has been with the club since May 31. Veteran free agent signees Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana have each made 30 starts and won at least 10 games, combining to throw nearly 550 IP with a 3.50 ERA to lead the rotation. Closer Edwin Diaz has been inconsistent, but logged 20 saves with a 3.52 ERA. If Cohen is going to get his money’s worth out of his costly collection of talent, Mendoza will have to navigate this team into the World Series and hope his star players rise to the occasion. It’s been 38 years since the Mets last won a championship, and their fans are certainly hungry to see that drought end.

Predictions:

Brewers over the Mets

Padres over the Braves

Phillies over the Brewers

Padres over the Dodgers

Padres over the Phillies

NL Champion: San Diego Padres

World Series:

Padres over the Yankees