NFL 2021: The lowdown on the long shots

BY J.A. SCHWARTZ

The 2021 NFL season will be the second straight campaign waged in the shadow of a pandemic. Last season, most of which was staged in cavernous stadiums largely empty due to virus avoidance procedures, still ended in a familiar way to NFL fans: with Tom Brady lifting the Lombardi Trophy following a Super Bowl victory. The more things change, the more things stay the same.

Will 2021 play out in a similar fashion? Is Tom Brady destined to raise big mugs of his favorite fruit and vegetable smoothie to toast another ring with his supermodel wife? We will soon find out.

Tampa Bay, fresh off their second Super Bowl title, decided that the team that won it all in 2020 should have the opportunity to defend their title. The franchise brought back virtually every starting player from that team, led by the ageless Brady and a lightning quick group of defensive players hell-bent on the destruction of opposing quarterbacks, as Patrick Mahomes found out in Super Bowl LV. The Buccaneers enter the 2021 as the second most likely team to win it all according to most Vegas sports books, slightly behind the very team they just vanquished to win last year’s trophy, the Kansas City Chiefs.

There are 30 other franchises that will enter the season with the same goal, but there are a handful of candidates that stand out above the others. Eliminating the teams that almost certainly CAN NOT win the Super Bowl is the simplest place to begin. Organizations such as the New York Jets, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions all have professional players, but don’t figure to factor into any games beyond December in 2021.

Beyond those teams that are in a cycle of rebuilding, there is another group that feature improving rosters with exciting young players at skill positions, but who would need to take a large leap forward from their 2020 levels to threaten to make the playoffs.

This cohort would include Cincinnati, who hope to develop Joe Burrow into the franchise quarterback they see him becoming, and Philadelphia, who have turned their team over, moving on from former #2 overall selection (2016) Carson Wentz (traded to the Colts) to allow Jalen Hurts an opportunity to become the face of their organization. Carolina likely falls into this category, as they seek to recapture the potential of Sam Darnold, former #3 overall pick (2018) who changed teams after a miserable stint attempting to resurrect the moribund Jets franchise. Chicago may well have discovered their first franchise quarterback since the team last won the Super Bowl following the 1985 season, drafting Ohio State’s Justin Fields 11th overall in this year’s draft, but it would be a remarkable feat for the former Buckeye to haul an ordinary Bears roster to the playoffs as a rookie.

Another group of teams lingers on the fringes of contention, those organizations that would require everything to break the right way for their seasons to lead to playoff berths, but who figure to be competitive enough to be around .500. There should be no .500 teams in the NFL this season given that the schedule now includes 17 games, and this collection of squads projects to win between 7-9 games, but a few might emerge to exceed that ceiling, qualifying for the postseason.

Miami, under head coach Brian Flores, has played increasingly competitively over the past two seasons, and if Tua Tagovaialoa shows improvement over his uneven rookie year performance, the Dolphins could find themselves challenging for a playoff berth.

Pittsburgh is a team arguably headed in the other direction. After nearly two decades of winning football under head coach Mike Tomlin and veteran Ben Roethlisberger, the defending AFC North Division winners may have a trying season ahead. Their fortunes may well turn on the increasingly inconsistent passing skill of 39 year-old Roethlisberger, who is now two years removed from a surgical procedure on his passing elbow.

Indianapolis will seek to wring a healthy, productive season out of erstwhile Eagles savior Carson Wentz, who was traded to the Colts this offseason. The Colts have cycled through multiple starting quarterbacks since the surprise retirement of Andrew Luck in 2019, and head coach Frank Reich will try to maximize the talent of the oft-injured Wentz to lead his team back to the playoffs.

The Las Vegas Raiders, led by Jon Gruden, find themselves searching for the right combination of talent to surpass the Kansas City Chiefs for AFC West supremacy. Led by supremely gifted Darren Waller at tight end, the Raiders may take the next step towards a playoff berth if enigmatic 30-year-old Derek Carr can get him the ball and their porous defense steps forward.

The Los Angeles Chargers are another team on the rise, led by second year signal caller Justin Herbert, the 2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Chargers have been decimated by injuries over the past several seasons, but a healthy return by the versatile Derwin James would go a long way towards helping the Bolts put a scare into the Chiefs in the AFC West.

The Denver Broncos have been unable to draft or develop a quarterback since Peyton Manning left town, and they will likely be dependent on the accurate arm of Teddy Bridgewater to make any real noise this season. Armed with a gifted receiver corps led by Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, the Broncos could be a surprise contender.

Over in the NFC, anyone in the East could conceivably emerge to have a 10+ win season, and someone in the division has to make the playoffs. Dallas figures to have the best offense, with newly signed Dak Prescott leading an attack that is spearheaded by Ezekiel Elliot, and speed merchant receivers Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. The Washington Football Team has the best defense in the division, and will lean on the venerable Ryan Fitzpatrick to put points on the board. The Giants will welcome back Saquon Barkley, who missed most of last year after an ACL tear, but are still led by Daniel Jones under center, who has yet to mature into the franchise quarterback the organization foresaw when he supplanted Eli Manning.

The Minnesota Vikings disappointed their defensive minded coach Mike Zimmer in 2020. “This is a bad defense…the worst one I’ve ever had”, the coach would say after a 52-33 loss to the Saints last season. The Vikings will get Danielle Hunter back after he underwent neck surgery in September of 2020, missing most of the season, which can only help the pass rush and defensive line play. If Kirk Cousins can avoid turnovers (he had 18 in 2020, behind only the 19 Carson Wentz coughed up) and get the ball to second year receiver Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook, the Vikings may return to the postseason.

Arizona and Atlanta have vastly different quarterback situations, yet both could end up elevating themselves from the middle tier to the playoffs because of the performance of their QB’s. In Atlanta, 36 year-old Matt Ryan will lead the Falcons attack, which will be without the services of former franchise receiver Julio Jones, who was traded to Tennessee after expressing his displeasure with the direction of the team. Ryan’s new favorite target may well be Kyle Pitts, the #4 overall pick in this past year’s draft out of Florida, whose size and speed make him a matchup nightmare.

In Arizona, Kyler Murray will enter his third year as the starting quarterback in Arizona for coach Kliff Klingsbury. The top overall selection in the 2019 draft won the Heisman in 2018 at Oklahoma, and was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019, but his brilliance has yet to translate into a postseason appearance for the Cardinals. Perhaps 2021 will be the year his talent will be supported by a stronger overall roster, though he does face a gauntlet of talented NFC West teams, each of who envision winning seasons and deep playoff runs.

The twelve remaining teams are each considered threats to at least win their divisions, and most are among the odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl.

In descending order, from least likely to win the Lombardi trophy to the team with the best chance of becoming champion of the NFL for the 2021 season:

12. New England Patriots: The Patriots are coached by arguably the greatest mind to ever stalk the sideline. Bill Belichick has won an unmatched six Super Bowl championships during his illustrious coaching career, and has the most playoff wins (31) and Super Bowl appearances (9) of any head coach ever. All of those achievements came while he was directing the efforts of Tom Brady, who has since taken his talents to Tampa Bay, and Belichick will seek to groom the next franchise quarterback in rookie Mac Jones, selected 15th overall out of Alabama in this year’s draft.

Belichick will give the rookie the reigns from the opening bell, releasing last year’s starter, Cam Newton on the eve of the season. He figures to have a full complement of players to utilize in 2021, after a number of his better performers opted out of the 2021 season or missed the year with injuries. He’s earned the respect to be considered a threat to shepherd his charges into the playoffs in any given season, though his team will not be favored to win the AFC East. Underestimate Bill Belichick at your own peril.

11. New Orleans Saints: Sean Payton will be trying to find success for his team without the quarterback he’s worked with for the majority of his head-coaching career. Drew Brees retired this offseason with a Super Bowl title on his resume, and currently sits atop the all-time leader board for most career passing yards and completions. Brady will almost certainly knock Brees from the top spot in passing yards by Halloween, but that does not diminish the greatness that will no longer be at the disposal of Payton in 2021.

Payton will instead rely upon the ability of Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill, who will both see time under center this season. Neither is considered an above average passer, but given the presence of Alvin Kamara as a pass catching threat out of the backfield, and emerging downfield target Marquez Callaway, the Saints will still be dangerous. The defense remains stout, and if they can get even middle of the road performances out of Winston and Hill, they could make the playoffs.

10. Tennessee Titans: The Titans were the beneficiaries of Atlanta’s inability to keep Julio Jones happy, and with him, the Titans arguably feature the best skill position offensive talent in football. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been a revelation since arriving from Miami, and at age 33, is positioned to enjoy the most weapons at the disposal of any passer in the league. As a Titan, Tannehill is 18-8, with a 55-13 touchdown to interception count, and a 111 QBR that places him among the elite in the NFL. He’ll have Jones and AJ Brown to bedevil defenses with, both big-bodied receivers with speed, great hands and route running prowess.

If that weren’t enough firepower, Tannehill can always turn around and hand the ball off to Derrick Henry, the NFL’s leading rusher in each of the last two seasons, and a beast to take down at 6″3″, 257 lbs. If the defense can stop opposing teams from marching up and down the field, the Titans have perhaps the easiest path to a gaudy record given the presence of Houston and Jacksonville, both rebuilding, and a Colts team being riddled by injuries, in their division.

9. Seattle Seahawks: Pete Carroll has teamed up with Russell Wilson to elevate their team into the playoffs for eight of their nine seasons together, winning the Super Bowl following the 2013 season. At 33, Wilson is the NFL’s most durable quarterback, never having missed a start, a streak currently at 144 games and counting. He’s performed at an incredibly high level during that run, with a 101.7 career rating that’s fourth all-time. Teamed with physical specimen DK Metcalf, Wilson should again amass impressive aerial statistics, but he’ll need a stronger running game to support those efforts.

As opposed to the relatively weak AFC South that the Titans should destroy, the NFC West might be football’s toughest division, featuring four teams that rank within the top eight teams in the conference, including those considered the third, fourth and fifth best rosters in the league (San Francisco, Seattle and the Rams respectively). Those behemoths may well exhaust themselves in division play, leaving them a rockier road into the playoffs, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone to have three teams from the division playing deep into January.

Check back tomorrow for the conclusion to our countdown of the best teams in the NFL and our predictions for each division champion in addition to the playoffs and Super Bowl.