Martinez Tribune The website of the Martinez Tribune.
BY J.A. SCHWARTZ
The San Francisco 49ers are the top seed in the NFC, having finished 12-5 behind MVP candidates QB Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey, giving them home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs in their quest to reach the Super Bowl.
San Francisco 49ers (#1 seed)
Purdy (31 TDs, league leading 113.0 QB rating and league best 9.01 Adjusted Net Yards/Attempt) and McCaffrey (league leading 21 TDs, 2023 all purpose yards) anchor an elite offense bolstered by wide receivers Brandon Aijuk and Deebo Samuel in addition to tight end George Kittle. Their defense led the NFC in turnovers forced and points allowed, and is powered by the twin engines of Nick Bosa (10 sacks, 16 tackles for loss) and Fred Warner, in the top 10 in the league in solo tackles and interceptions). As the playoffs get set to begin the weekend of January 13-14th, 2024, San Francisco is a co-favorite to win the Super Bowl, along with Baltimore. That may surprise fans who witnessed the Christmas Day beat down the Ravens laid on the 49ers, 33-19 in San Francisco, a game where Purdy was intercepted four times (he has thrown only 11 INTs all season). Should those two teams match up again in the Super Bowl, it would offer the 49ers a chance to avenge the first loss the franchise had ever suffered in the championship game, 34-31 to the Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII in 2013.
Dallas Cowboys (#2 seed)
The #2 seed in the NFC is the Dallas Cowboys, who won the NFC East thanks to a late season collapse by Philadelphia, who lost five of their final six games to open the door for Dallas to claim the division title. The Cowboys are led offensively by quarterback Dak Prescott, who threw for 4516 yards, 36 TDs and a career high 105.9 QB rating. Prescott’s primary downfield target was CeeDee Lamb, whose 135 receptions led the league, generating 1739 receiving yards and 12 TDs in 2023. Dallas scored 509 points in 2023 to ead the NFL, and paced the league with over half of their offensive drives ending with a score (50.3%). Their dynamic defense is led by cornerback DaRon Bland, whose eight interceptions (five of which he returned for TDs, a league record for a single season) led the NFL, and Micah Parsons, whose 18 tackles for loss and 14 sacks underscore the havoc he wrought on opposing offenses in 2023. Rookie kicker Brandon Aubrey had made each of his first 35 field goal attempts (including 9 of 50 or more yards) before missing two on the final day to finish 36/38 on the season, giving them a reliable special teams weapon in close games. If Dallas is to reach the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1995 season, they’ll need Prescott to overcome his mediocre performance history in the playoffs, where he is 2-4 lifetime, never having led the Cowboys to the NFC Championship Game.
Detroit Lions (#3 seed)
For the first time since 1993, the Lions are the kings of the NFC North. In fact, the last time they won their division, it was called the NFC Central, and Barry Sanders, Rodney Peete and Herman Moore were the fuel behind the 10-6 club that would lose to Green Bay in the first round of the playoffs. Current coach Dan Campbell was in high school in Texas in 1993, and even he probably didn’t imagine he’d one day be the head coach of an NFL playoff team. He took over the Detroit job after the team went 5-11 in 2020, and was 3-13 as a first year head coach. Two seasons later, he’s leading a 12-5 team into the NFC playoffs, and his offense has scored the fifth most points, and averages the fourth best yards per play of any team in the league. QB Jared Goff pilots a passing attack that is third in the NFL in yards gained, led by Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie Sam Laporta, who have nearly 200 catches, 2200 yards and 18 TDs between them. LaPorta, who set a rookie record for tight ends with 86 receptions, suffered a knee injury in the final game of the season, and may not be available for the playoff matchup against the Rams. The two-headed running back tandem of David Montgomery and rookie first round pick Jahmyr Gibbs averages exactly five yards a carry, and have 23 TDs and nearly 2000 yards to show for their efforts in 2023. Their defense is anchored by Aidan Hutchinson, whose 11.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss pace the unit. With a versatile offensive attack, the Lions should feel capable of keeping up with their high scoring NFC playoff rivals, and could well emerge to bring Detroit its first ever appearance in the Super Bowl.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#4 seed)
Baker Mayfield was the top overall pick by Cleveland in the 2018 draft. He’s since been traded for a fourth round pick, released, and finally signed by Tampa Bay as Tom Brady’s replacement before the 2023 season. Despite his star-crossed path, Mayfield helped guide the Buccaneers to the playoffs, winning five of their final six games to win the NFC South. In the process, Mayfield threw for a career high 4044 yards and 28 TDs, resulting in the second best QB rating of his career. Mayfield leaned heavily on his star wideouts Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who combined for 162 catches, 1279 yards and 15 TDs in 2023. Second year running back Rashaad White accounted for 1539 yards from scrimmage and 9 TDs as the primary ball carrier, but the offense was last in the league with 3.4 yards per carry. Second year coach Todd Bowles (17-17, 0-1 in the playoffs in Tampa) will likely rely upon Mayfield and his downfield threats to score enough to support a stout defense. That unit was seventh in points allowed, and fourth in the league allowing only 3.8 yards per rushing attempt. Led by ageless linebacker Lavonte David, whose 17 tackles for loss was seventh in the league, Tampa Bay won games on the defensive side of the ball, and if Bowles is going to earn his first career playoff victory, he’ll have to rely upon Mayfield, Evans and Godwin to make enough big plays through the air to lead Tampa Bay through a loaded NFC playoff field.
Philadelphia Eagles (#5 seed)
The defending NFC Champions head into the playoffs with significant questions about their fitness to make a return trip to the Super Bowl. After a 10-1 start, they lost five of their final six to cede the division to Dallas, and will need to recapture the form they showed last January from the wild card slot without the benefit of home field advantage to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Their roster is led by largely the same key contributors on offense as last year’s squad, including QB Jalen Hurts and his two key receivers, AJ Brown and DaVonta Smith. Those two combined to snare 187 passes, for 14 touchdowns and over 2500 yards. The offense, ranked seventh in points scored, led the NFL in fourth down conversion rate, thanks mainly to the “Tush Push” perfected by Hurts and his veteran offensive line. The issue for the Eagles this season lies on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve allowed 428 points in 2023, third worst in the league, and have forced only 18 turnovers, in the bottom quarter of the defensive units. Their secondary has been burned for 35 TDs through the air, and they’ve conspired to allow an opponent’s passer rating of 97.6, the worst of all the playoff teams. Considering the high powered attacks they may face in Dallas, San Francisco, Detroit and the LA Rams (each of whom feature a top 10 offense), the Eagles may be a long shot to outscore their opponents and win high scoring games this January.
Los Angeles Rams (#6 seed)
Just two seasons ago, head coach Sean McVay led his 12-5 Rams to a championship over the Bengals 23-20 in February of 2022. His quarterback was Matthew Stafford, and one of his primary targets was Cooper Kupp (who was the Super Bowl MVP and Offensive Player of the Year in 2021). The defense was built around the talents of Aaron Donald, who harassed opposing offenses into sacks and mistakes. It’s now two full years later, but the same cast of characters who were champions of the league are still playing key roles in how Los Angeles does business in 2023. Kupp has a new sidekick in rookie sensation (and 5th round draft selection) Puka Nacua, whose 101 receptions and 1445 yards have made the Rams passing game difficult to defend. Second year fifth round pick Kyren Williams has become the primary running back, ringing up 1350 total scrimmage yards, and 15 TDs to expand McVay’s offensive options, and helped the Rams win six of their last seven games, clinching a wild card berth with a week to spare. The offense, eighth in the league in points and seventh in yards gained, will have to go toe-to-toe with the other NFC playoff teams, most of whom are at least as potent on that side of the ball. McVay (69-45 lifetime, including 7-3 in the playoffs) has a ring and experienced veterans capable of producing on the biggest stage, and they’ll need Stafford, Kupp and Donald to play like champions again if they hope to win another title.
Green Bay Packers (#7 seed)
The 2023 Green Bay Packers are the youngest team to earn a playoff berth since the 1977 Chicago Bears. Head Coach Matt LaFleur has led Green Bay to the playoffs in four of his five seasons at the helm, but the 2023 version was arguably the least likely to advance past the regular season. Having traded franchise icon Aaron Rodgers to the Jets, the team was prepared for a year of growing pains under third year QB Jordan Love. Love was a controversial first round selection by the club in 2020, given that Rodgers was still at his peak, having won the 2020 MVP (an award he’d win again in 2021), but he learned the game holding a clipboard on the sidelines while Rodgers excelled on the field-similar to Rodgers indoctrination with the franchise behind Brett Favre. Love improved dramatically as the season went on, going 7-3 in the Packers final 10 games, throwing 21 TDs and allowing only 3 picks, throwing with more accuracy and better results (averaging 8.0 adjusted net yards/attempt). By any measure, it was a coming out party for Love, who helped make young wideouts Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton into reliable downfield threats. Love, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon combined for 1500 yards on the ground, helping the young Packers offense to the seventh best yards/play (5.6) in football. The defense was 10th in points allowed, but next to last in interceptions. Rashan Gary, Preston Smith and Kenny Clark combined to net 24.5 sacks this year. LaFleur expects speedy Christian Watson back for the Wild Card matchup in Dallas and he may provide Love with another weapon to throw at the Cowboys. Even if Love and LaFleur can’t get past Dak Prescott in this year’s playoffs, the core of young Green Bay talent is well positioned to make multiple return trips to the postseason dance.
Predictions:
NFC Champion: San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl: San Francisco over Cleveland
